Technical And Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis

Gold is currently dominated by a strong short-term bullish trend, supported by price action remaining consistently above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). 

• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is noted at $4,821; a sustained break above this level targets the $4,900 and $5,000 psychological milestones.
• Support Levels: Key support points are established at $4,620, $4,615, and a secondary floor at $4,520.
• Momentum Indicators: While Relative Strength Indicators (RSI) show strong positive momentum, they have reached overbought levels, suggesting a potential for short-term corrective pullbacks before the next leg up. 

Fundamental Analysis

The record-breaking rally is driven by a convergence of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors:

• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating trade tensions, including U.S. tariff threats on European nations and a diplomatic rift over Greenland, have significantly accelerated the flight to safe-haven assets.
• Monetary Policy: Markets are anticipating a more visible monetary easing cycle in 2026. Lower global interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its appeal.
• Central Bank Demand: Central banks remain a primary pillar of support, with an estimated 755 tonnes of purchases projected for 2026. Standout buyers include Poland and China, as they diversify reserves away from fiat currencies.

Safe-Haven Diversification: Increased market volatility and uncertainty surrounding global growth have led to significant ETF inflows, which reached record quarterly highs at the start of the year. 

Key Insight: Major institutions such as J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs have upgraded their targets, with some analysts projecting gold could reach $5,300 to $6,000 if global diversification into the metal continues at its current pace.