The technical setup on your chart points to a potential short-term pullback into a strong demand zone. The fundamental backdrop, dominated by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting this week, largely supports this perspective by creating two-sided risk and potential volatility.
1. 🇺🇸 U.S. Federal Reserve (The Key Event)
The most critical factor driving XAU/USD this week is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 9-10, followed by the rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday (December 10th/Thursday morning, December 11th, depending on your time zone).
Market Expectation Bullish for a Gold Long term ( The market is heavily pricing in an 87-90% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut this week, which would lower the Fed Funds Rate to the 3.50%-3.75% range. Rate cuts weaken the US Dollar (USD) and lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, which has been the primary driver of its strong rally this year.
The Risk (Bearish for Gold's Short-Term): The technical setup for a pullback (your proposed short trade) is supported by the risk of the Fed being ess dovish than the market expects:
Less Dovish Talk: If Chair Powell downplays the need for further aggressive cuts in 2026, or if the updated "Dot Plot" shows fewer anticipated cuts next year, it could cause the USD to strengthen sharply, triggering the deeper gold retracement you are anticipating.
"Buy the Rumor, Sell the News": Gold has already rallied significantly on the expectation of a cut. Even if the cut is delivered, the actual announcement could be a catalyst for profit-taking (a "sell the news" event), especially if the language about the future is cautious.
2. 📊 Recent U.S. Economic Data
Recent data has been mixed, reinforcing the case for the Fed to cut:
Cooling Labor Market (Bullish for Gold): Data like a surprise drop in private payrolls and an increase in announced layoffs point to a cooling labor market, giving the Fed the justification it needs for a rate cut.
Sticky Inflation (Mixed): Core PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred measure) remains steady at 2.8%, still above the 2.0% target. This suggests inflation is not fully defeated, which could restrain the Fed from signaling a long series of cuts, leading to USD strength.
3. 🌐 Structural Drivers (Long-Term Bullish)
The broader trend for gold remains extremely bullish, confirming the "Higher High" observed on your chart:
Central Bank Buying: Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBOC), continue to be massive buyers of gold (de-dollarization trend), providing a strong floor under the price.
Geopolitical Risk: Persistent geopolitical tensions (Eastern Europe, Middle East) sustain gold's safe-haven demand.
2026 Forecasts: Major banks have significantly raised their gold price forecasts for 2026, with some targets reaching $4,600 to $4,800 per ounce, driven by expected Fed easing and sustained structural demand.
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⚖️ Conclusion: Fundamental vs. Technical
Perspective | Implication for XAU/USD | Alignment with Your Trade
Primary Fundamental Driver (Long-Term) | Fed Rate Cuts & Geopolitics: Sustained long-term uptrend. | Supports the idea that the Demand Zone ($4,100-$4,079) is a strong buying area after a pullback.
Near-Term Fundamental Risk |"Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" & Cautious Fed: Risk of a sharp correction/profit-taking right after the Fed decision. | Strongly aligns with your proposed short-term counter-trend Sell trade setup into the deep demand zone.
The fundamentals suggest that while the long-term trend is up, the immediate risk is for a correction driven by profit-taking or a less-dovish-than-hoped-for Fed announcement, making your proposed short-term sell (reversal back to demand) a valid strategy for the first half of the week leading into and immediately following the Fed event.
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