Weekly XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Holds Steady

Gold Holds Steady Ahead of FOMC Verdict, Eyes $3,300 Support Gold is navigating a tense macro landscape this week, consolidating near $3,284 after a sharp drop from last week’s high of $3,438. The market is bracing for the FOMC policy decision, which could be the catalyst for a breakout—or breakdown.

🔍 Key Drivers Supporting Gold

• FOMC Uncertainty: The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, but Chair Powell’s cautious tone and internal dissent signal growing pressure for a rate cut later this year.
• Geopolitical Tensions: US-China trade talks resumed, while pressure mounts on Russia amid threats of secondary sanctions. These risks continue to support safe-haven flows.
• Global Trade Sentiment: Recent US-EU and US-Japan trade deals are easing global tensions, helping stabilize investor sentiment.

💱 Dollar Strength Poses a Challenge

• The USD Index (DXY) closed July at 98.84, marking a 2.5% monthly gain—its first of the year.
• Traders are pricing in a potential rate cut in October, but Powell emphasized the need for more data before pivoting.
• Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July, up from 95.2, reflecting cautious optimism despite lingering recession risks.

📉 Technical Setup

• Price Action: Gold is trading at $3,284.40, down 0.35% on the day.
• Indicators: RSI remains near neutral, while MACD and moving averages lean bearish—suggesting consolidation until macro clarity emerges.
• Support Zone: $3,270–$3,300 remains a key floor; a break below could expose $3,250.