USD/CHF: STATISTICS RECORDED A DECREASE IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN SWITZERLAND TO –3.1% IN THE FIRST QUARTER

Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is trading above the 0.9090 level, supported by poor statistics from Switzerland presented last Friday.

Thus, Q1 data on industrial production, which reflect changes in the volume of output of industrial goods and utilities in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry, recorded a decrease in volumes of –3.1% YoY, which was lower than the forecast of –1.2 % and the previous value –0.5%. Note that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 was only 0.72%, and if the negative trend intensifies, the national currency the quotes will again be under pressure.

The long-term trend is upward: after reaching a high of 0.9224 in early May, the price went into a correction, within which it tested the support level of 0.9015 twice, moved to growth and overcame the resistance level of 0.9090, after consolidating above which a test of 0.9142 and then 0.9230 is expected.

The medium-term trend is upward: last week the quotes approached the key trend support area of 0.8979–0.8955. The price area just above it was held by buyers, as a result of which the asset this week renewed the previous week’s high of 0.9097, consolidation above which will allow the “bulls” to retest zone 4 (0.9249–0.9224). If the resistance level of 0.9097 is maintained, the quotes are expected to decline to the trend line of 0.8979–0.8955, from where long positions are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.9090, 0.9142, 0.9230.

Support levels: 0.9015, 0.8878.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.9058, with the target at 0.9230 and stop loss 0.8990. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.8990, with the target at 0.8878 and stop loss 0.9035.