The United States of America

USD is strengthening against JPY but falling against EUR and GBP.

The negative dynamics are developing against poor macroeconomic statistics from the labor market: initial jobless claims increased from 209.0K to 231.0K compared to the preliminary estimate of 212.0K, resulting in the average claims over the past four weeks growth from 210.25K to 215.00K, and total claims – from 1.768M to 1.785M. Today at 16:00 (GMT 2), reports on consumer expectations indices from the University of Michigan are due, which, according to preliminary estimates, will demonstrate weakening, increasing pressure on the national currency.

Eurozone

EUR strengthens against JPY and USD but declines against GBP.

The euro stabilized at the end of the week under pressure from poor macroeconomic statistics. Thus, in March, industrial production in Italy adjusted from 0.1% to –0.5% against forecasts of 0.3% MoM and from –3.3% to –3.5% YoY. In addition, the minutes of the recent European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting were published today, which outlined the key factors in the decision to maintain interest rates: inflation risks are still present and productivity growth is insufficient.

The United Kingdom

GBP is rising against USD, JPY, and EUR.

The positive trend at the beginning of the week is intensifying against macroeconomic statistics: in March, the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4%, exceeding 2.0% previously and the forecast of 0.1%, as a result of which the Q1 figure adjusted from – 0.3% to 0.6% compared to preliminary estimates of 0.4%. Thus, economic growth amounted to 0.2% YoY after contracting by 0.2% earlier, although analysts had expected zero dynamics.

Japan

JPY is falling against EUR, GBP, and USD.

Support from the Bank of Japan’s currency interventions could not change the long-term trend. Next week, the yen may return to historical lows against poor macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the March household expenditure index adjusted from 1.4% to 1.2% MoM and from –0.5% to –1.2% YoY. In addition, the situation in the debt market remains unstable: the volume of purchases of foreign bonds decreased by 727.6B yen, and foreign investment in Japanese stocks increased from 153.2B yen to 268.8B yen, remaining below the average levels at the beginning of the year of 600.0–800.0B yen.

Australia

AUD is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

The currency’s upward potential has been exhausted, and even positive macroeconomic statistics cannot support it. Thus, in March, the total number of permits for the construction of residential buildings increased by 1.9% to 12.947K, for houses in the private sector – by 3.8% to 8.891K, and for the construction of apartments – by 3.6% to 3.936K. New builds increased by 8.7% to 6.35B Australian dollars and non-residential by 28.7% to 5.28B Australian dollars.

Oil

Oil prices are rising for the third day after the publication of reports on strategic reserves in the United States.

Thus, according to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), last week, the figure adjusted from 7.265M barrels to –1.362M barrels, which was only the second week of reduction since the beginning of March, supporting the asset. According to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), the growth of oil reserves slowed from 4.906M barrels to 0.509M barrels.