Current trend

The AUD/USD pair shows moderate growth, developing the upward momentum of the previous day, as a result of which it managed to retreat from the local lows of April 23. The instrument is testing 0.6535 for a breakout, while trading participants evaluate the April Australian foreign trade report.

Export volumes added 0.1% after -3.2% in the previous month, while Imports fell from 4.5% to 4.2%. Against this background, the trade surplus fell from 6.591 billion Australian dollars to 5.024 billion Australian dollars, while markets were expecting 7.370 billion Australian dollars. Meanwhile, Retail Sales fell 0.4% in March after rising 0.3% the previous month, confirming the country's weakest annual growth on record outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. The weak reading signaled weak consumer demand, as well as households facing higher borrowing costs and economic pressure amid the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) prolonged "hawkish" monetary policy stance. The day before, trading participants drew attention to statistics on business activity in Australia. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI corrected from 49.9 points to 49.6 points with neutral forecasts, AiG Manufacturing PMI in March dropped from -7.0 points to -13.9 points, and AiG Construction PMI declined from -12.9 points to -25.6 points.

Today, the market will focus on statistics from the United States on the jobless claims: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 26 is likely to increase from 207.0 thousand to 212.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended April 19 are expected to be near the previous level of 1.781 million.

Tomorrow the market will receive April data on business activity in the Services sector from the Commonwealth Bank in Australia, and on the labor market in the US. Analysts expect a slowdown in the growth rate of Nonfarm Payrolls from 303.0 thousand to 243.0 thousand.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing to the ascending plane. The price range expands from above, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic keeps confident downward dynamics approaching its lows and indicating the risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6586, 0.6628, 0.6661, 0.6700.

Support levels: 0.6520, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6345.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.6586 with the target of 0.6661. Stop-loss — 0.6540. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.6586 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.6545 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.6450. Stop-loss — 0.6586.