Current trend

Last week, the BTC/USD pair had ambiguous dynamics: quotes fell to the area of 59600.00, but then regained lost positions.

Initially, the positions of "digital gold" were under pressure from geopolitical and monetary factors: the escalation of the military conflict between Iran and Israel led to an outflow of investments from risky assets, including digital ones, as well as increased demand for safe haven assets, primarily gold and the dollar. In turn, the US currency began an uptrend against the background of the possibility of postponing the easing of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve from June to September due to increased inflation rates. Nevertheless, at the beginning of this week, the BTC/USD pair managed to return to the 66100.00 mark, which was facilitated by the fourth halving in the Bitcoin network, which took place on April 20 at block No. 840,000 and reduced the amount of remuneration to miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This event should lead to a significant reduction in the production of new coins, and their annual issue is likely to drop to 0.85% of the total amount of 21.0 million tokens.

Despite the moderate growth of quotes after halving, experts disagree about the movement of the BTC/USD pair in the medium term. So, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. expect that the exchange rate may decrease to the area of 42000.00, since miners will have to sell accumulated coins to cover losses and finance business restructuring under new conditions, in particular, the transfer of mining capacities to regions with cheaper electricity. Deutsche Bank experts believe that the price will be in a flat state for a long time, since the consequences of halving have long been taken into account by the market, and analysts at CBNC expect the beginning of a serious growth of the asset, based on historical data, according to which, after similar events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, BTC quotes began a "bullish" cycle, which was the driver of price growth in 93, 30, and 8 times, respectively.

Generally, the situation in the cryptocurrency market remains uncertain, and after the reduction of the reward for miners, it may again be influenced by monetary and regulatory factors.

Support and resistance

The price is forming a descending channel: last week its lower limit was tested in the area of 60000.00, after which the quotes returned to growth. Currently, the instrument is testing the central line of Bollinger Bands (66300.00), consolidating above which will allow the pair to continue moving towards 71875.00 (Murrey level [7/8], the upper border of the descending channel) and 75000.00 (Murrey level [8/8], 161.8% Fibonacci extension). The key for the "bears" is the 62500.00 mark (Murrey level [4/8]), the breakdown of which may lead to the development of a decline with targets of 59375.00 (Murrey level [3/8]) and 56250.00 (Murrey level [2/8]).

At the moment, Bollinger Bands are pointing down and Stochastic is directed up, but it is entering the overbought zone, not excluding an imminent downward reversal, while MACD is stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 66300.00, 71875.00, 75000.00.

Support levels: 62500.00, 59375.00, 56250.00.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened below the 62500.00 mark with targets of 59375.00, 56250.00 and stop-loss of 64600.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 67700.00 with targets of 71875.00, 75000.00 and stop-loss of 65700.00.