EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows moderate growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing 1.0665 for a breakout, while trading participants await the emergence of new drivers. At the same time, the fundamental background today will remain quite calm, and only the speech of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde and the monthly report from the Bundesbank will attract attention. One can also note the upcoming publication of April data on the level of Consumer Confidence in the eurozone: a weak increase in the indicator is predicted from -14.9 points to -14.0 points. Tomorrow, April business activity statistics from S&P Global will be presented. In the eurozone, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 46.1 points to 46.5 points, and the Services PMI - from 51.5 points to 51.8 points. Similar figures from the US could also increase from 51.7 points in the services sector and 51.9 points in the manufacturing sector. Investors evaluate the March data on the German Producer Price Index, published last Friday: the indicator added 0.2% in monthly terms after -0.4% in February, while analysts expected zero dynamics, and in annual terms, producer inflation decreased by 2.9% after -4.1% a month earlier.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with upward dynamics, correcting after a sharp decline at the end of last week, which led to an update of the local lows of November 14. The instrument is testing 1.2390 for a breakout, but there are no noticeable factors for growth in the market yet. Moreover, investors continue to evaluate March UK Retail Sales data, which appeared on Friday. The indicator in monthly terms showed zero dynamics after an increase of 0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%, and in annual terms, sales volumes added 0.8% after -0.3%. The indicator excluding fuel lost 0.3% on a monthly basis and increased by 0.4% on an annual basis. Today, the market received April statistics from the research company Rightmove Group Ltd.: the House Price Index slowed down from 1.5% to 1.1% month-on-month, and increased from 0.8% to 1.7% year-on-year. Tomorrow in the UK, April business activity data will be published: the Services PMI is expected to decline slightly from 53.1 points to 53.0 points, and the Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 50.3 points.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from the "bearish" dynamics at the end of last week, which led to an update of local lows from November 14. However, already on Friday the Australian dollar managed to recover almost all of its daily losses, which allowed the instrument to end the week's session with a moderate decline. Market activity at the beginning of the new week remains quite high despite the calm news background. During the day, the US will publish March data on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. In addition, investors evaluate the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate: the value was kept at 3.45%. Tomorrow the US will present statistics on business activity: forecasts suggest a slight increase from current levels of 51.7 points in the services sector and 51.9 points in the manufacturing sector. On Wednesday, April 24, the Australian market will receive information on inflation: the Consumer Price Index is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% in quarterly terms and decrease from 4.1% to 3.4% in annual terms. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is likely to add 0.9% quarterly and 4.2% annualized in the first quarter.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near record highs and 154.70. "Bullish" activity remains muted as investors expect new drivers to emerge throughout the week. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new long positions amid concerns about possible currency intervention by the Bank of Japan. Last month, the regulator decided to abandon negative interest rates, which, however, had virtually no effect on the national currency. Moreover, the yen continued to weaken when it became clear that the US Federal Reserve would not rush to reduce borrowing costs and the likelihood of easing monetary policy in June is extremely low. Against this background, Japanese monetary authorities accused speculators of an unreasonable depreciation of the national currency and announced retaliatory measures, which they had already resorted to in 2023. April business activity data will be published in the US and Japan on Tuesday. Forecasts for the Japanese Manufacturing PMI suggest a reduction from 48.2 points to 48.0 points, while in the US, indicators may remain around previous values: 51.7 points in the services sector and 51.9 points in the manufacturing sector. Also, at the end of the week, the Bank of Japan will meet, and April inflation statistics in the Tokyo region will be updated. It is assumed that the Consumer Price Index in April will remain at the same level of 2.6%. Any changes in the regulator's monetary policy are also not expected; however, investors are counting on updated comments from officials in connection with the further weakening of the yen.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is declining, retreating from local highs updated at the end of last week. The instrument is testing 2370.00 for a breakdown, while analysts expect new drivers to emerge. Gold prices continue to be supported by expectations of the imminent launch of a monetary easing program by global central banks. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve does not predict any changes in monetary parameters in the near future, given the continuing inflation risks and the fairly strong American economy. Apparently, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be the first to make adjustments to borrowing costs, followed by the Bank of England. The focus of investors today will be the March statistics on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and tomorrow the April data on business activity will be published: forecasts suggest that the Services PMI will remain around the previous value at 51.7 points. and the manufacturing PMI at 51.9 points. On Thursday, quarterly statistics on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will hit the market: in the first quarter, the national economy is expected to slow down from 3.4% to 2.5%.