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Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling finds support after mixed UK Retail Sales data

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  • The Pound Sterling finds interim support near 1.2400. The near-term outlook remains weak as the market mood turns risk-off due to fears of further escalation in Middle East tensions. Israel retaliated to Iran’s attack with drones in Friday’s early Asian session, Reuters reported citing several US officials. Iranian state media said that the air defense system brought down three drones over the central city of Isfahan.
  • UK Retail Sales were unchanged in March compared with the previous month, according to data from the country's Office for National Statistics, less than the 0.3% increase forecasted by economists. In February, Retail Sales grew by a meagre 0.1%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew sharply by 0.8% after contracting by 0.3% in February.
  • Retail Sales data indicate the current status of consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of economic growth. A stagnant performance on a month-on-month basis indicates that the BoE's high interest rates have significantly impacted consumer spending.
  • Going forward, headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict and speculation about BoE rate cuts will guide the next move in the Pound Sterling. On the latter, markets currently anticipate the BoE starting to lower rates in November as March inflation data declined at a slower pace than estimated.
  • On Thursday, BoE policymaker Megan Greene said in the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington: "The numbers that we're seeing in terms of wage growth and services inflation just aren't consistent with a sustainable 2% (consumer price) inflation target." When asked about a potential time frame for rate cuts, Greene said: "I don't think it's imminent."


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