EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows an uncertain decline, developing another "bearish" impetus formed the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0635 for a breakdown, while trading participants continue to analyze incoming macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone and the United States. February data published yesterday reflected a slowdown in Construction Output in the eurozone in annual terms by 0.4% after -0.3% a month earlier, and in monthly terms the figure added 1.8% after an increase of 0.2% in the previous month. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), the seasonally adjusted current account surplus in February fell from 39.3 billion euros to 29.5 billion euros, against a forecast of 45.2 billion euros. In addition, investors paid attention to statistics from the United States presented the day before. For the week ended April 12, Initial Jobless Claims remained at the same level of 212.0 thousand, while analysts expected 215.0 thousand; the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in April rose from 3.2 points to 15.5 points, ahead of market expectations of a decline to 1.5 points, while Existing Home Sales lost 4.3% after rising 0.5% in the previous month, which in absolute terms corresponded to a contraction from 4.38 million houses to 4.19 million houses with a forecast of 4.20 million. The focus of investors' attention today is on inflation statistics in Germany: the Producer Price Index in March added 0.2% after -0.4% in the previous month, while analysts expected zero dynamics, and in annual terms the indicator slowed down its decline from -4.1% to -2.9%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is declining, testing 1.2415 for a breakdown. Some pressure on the position of the pound comes from statistics on Retail Sales in the UK: the indicator showed zero dynamics in March after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%, and in annual terms sales accelerated by 0.8% after -0.3%. The indicator excluding fuel fell 0.3% after rising 0.3% in February. In addition, investors are assessing the March inflation data: in annual terms, the Consumer Price Index adjusted from 3.4% to 3.2% with preliminary estimates of 3.1%, and in monthly terms it remained at 0.6%. The Core CPI fell from 4.5% to 4.2% against the forecast of 4.1%. In turn, pressure on the American currency comes from March data on Existing Home Sales in the United States: the figure decreased by 4.3% after an increase of 9.5% in the previous month, and in absolute terms the number of homes sold decreased from 4.38 million to 4.19 million, while analysts expected 4.20 million.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing a decline, testing 0.6400 for a breakdown. At the opening of the Friday afternoon session, the "bears" managed to update the local lows of November 14, 2023, but they failed to consolidate at the new lows. Trading participants are closing some of their short positions as the market focuses on the data presented the day before. In Australia, a March report on the labor market was published, according to which the Employment Change decreased by 6.6 thousand after an increase of 117.6 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected 7.2 thousand, and the Unemployment Rate adjusted from 3.7% to 3.8% with a forecast of 3.9%. At the same time, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence Index rose from -6.0 points to -2.0 points in the first quarter. In turn, US data signaled a decline in Existing Home Sales by 4.3% in March after an increase of 9.5% in the previous month. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in April increased from 3.2 points to 15.5 points, with expectations at 1.5 points, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 12 April remained at the same level of 212.0 thousand, contrary to forecasts of 215.0 thousand.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows an uncertain decline, consolidating near 154.25. The American currency is losing ground against the backdrop of corrective sentiment, which is developing against a relatively calm macroeconomic background. On Thursday, the focus of trading participants was data from the United States. Thus, for the week ended April 12, Initial Jobless Claims remained at the same level of 212.0 thousand, while analysts expected 215.0 thousand; the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in April rose from 3.2 points to 15.5 points, beating market expectations of a decline to 1.5 points, while Existing Home Sales fell 4.3% after rising 0.5% the previous month. Today, investors are assessing inflation data in Japan: the National Consumer Price Index in March adjusted from 2.8% to 2.7%, which coincided with forecasts, and the CPI excluding Fresh Food and Energy slowed down from 3.2% to 2.9%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 2380.00. The instrument is preparing to end the weekly session with moderate growth; however, it is not yet showing any tendency towards a possible downward reversal. Gold prices continue to be supported by expectations that the world's leading central banks will soon begin easing monetary policy. In particular, it is predicted that as early as June the European Central Bank (ECB), and later the Bank of England, may decide to take such a step. The US Federal Reserve, in turn, can afford to continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude against the backdrop of some signs of rising inflation in the US and a fairly strong national economy, reacting only to incoming macroeconomic statistics. At the same time, the American regulator is still announcing an adjustment to the cost of borrowing this year, without naming specific deadlines. The main scenario assumes the first decline in the indicator in September, and in total, by the end of 2024, no more than two changes in the rate are currently expected, whereas two or three ones were previously predicted. Data from the US presented the day before did not provide significant support for the American currency. However, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in April increased from 3.2 points to 15.5 points, with a forecast of 1.5 points, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 12 April remained at the same level of 212.0 thousand, while analysts expected 215.0 thousand.