EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing weak corrective growth, recovering from an active "bearish" rally that formed in the middle of last week and led to an update of local lows dated November 2, 2023. The instrument is testing 1.0625 for a breakout, while investors await the emergence of new drivers. The market's focus today will be on inflation statistics in the eurozone, as well as speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB), who can comment on further prospects for monetary policy. The eurozone Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.8% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in March, while the Core CPI is expected to be 2.9%. So far, inflation remains above the target levels of the European regulator, but negative economic prospects are putting pressure on officials. Analysts expect that the ECB may decide to reduce borrowing costs in late summer or early autumn. Meanwhile, the single currency is supported by research data from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), presented yesterday. Thus, Economic Sentiment in the eurozone in April rose from 33.5 points to 43.9 points with a forecast of 37.2 points, and in Germany it strengthened from 31.7 points to 42.9 points, while analysts expected 35.1 points. In turn, statistics from the United States turned out to be mixed: Industrial Production in March increased by 0.4%, and the rate of Housing Starts fell sharply by 14.7% after an increase of 12.7% in the previous month. The Building Permits fell 4.3% after rising 2.3% in February.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is testing 1.2430 for a breakdown. Today, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics on inflation from the UK. In March, the Consumer Price Index slowed down from 3.4% to 3.2% in annual terms against expectations of 3.1%, and in monthly terms it added 0.6%, while the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy adjusted from 4.5% to 4.2%, while experts expected 4.1%. The Retail Price Index in March decreased from 4.5% to 4.3% in annual terms and from 0.8% to 0.5% in monthly terms. Thus, inflation in the UK is weakening, although at not fast enough pace. This will likely remain a reason for the Bank of England to maintain a wait-and-see attitude and not rush into launching a program to reduce borrowing costs. The day before, statistics on the labor market were published in the UK: the Average Earnings Including Bonus increased by 5.6% in February, while analysts expected 5.5%, and the growth rate of Average Earnings Excluding Bonus adjusted from 6.1% to 6.0%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate rose from 4.0% to 4.2%. In turn, American data reflected a slowdown in the dynamics of Housing Starts in March by 14.7%, while back in February the figure showed an increase of 12.7%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing significant growth, quickly regaining lost ground as a result of the development of a "bearish" trend in the short term. The instrument is testing 0.5900 for a breakout, while the quotes are receiving significant support from data from New Zealand. The Consumer Price Index in the first quarter fell sharply from 4.7% to 4.0% in annual terms and rose from 0.5% to 0.6% in quarterly terms. At the same time, an active decline in inflation may mean that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will move to easing monetary parameters, which will put additional pressure on the national currency. Another "bullish" factor for the instrument was Chinese data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published the day before: China's economy grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter after rising 5.2% in the previous period, while analysts had expected 5.0% and the quarter-on-quarter rate accelerated from 1.2% to 1.6%. In turn, statistics from the United States, presented yesterday, reflected a decrease in the Housing Starts in March by 14.7% after an increase of 12.7% in the previous month, and in absolute terms the figure dropped from 1.549 million to 1.321 million with the preliminary estimates at 1.480 million.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows ambiguous dynamics, consolidating near 154.60. The activity of the "bulls" remains quite high, but investors are in no hurry to open new long positions, expecting possible intervention from the Bank of Japan in the market situation, since officials previously criticized the speculative actions of trading participants for the groundless weakening of the national currency. The yen largely shrugged off a historic interest rate hike last month as regulators said monetary policy would remain soft. The Japanese currency received some support yesterday from foreign trade data: in March, Exports added 7.3%, slowing slightly from 7.8% in the previous month, while Imports fell by 4.9% after rising by 0.5% in February. Against this background, the Trade Balance entered the surplus zone at the level of 366.5 billion yen after a deficit of -377.8 billion yen a month earlier. Preliminary March data from the US construction sector, presented yesterday, were weak: the Building Permits fell by 4.3% to 1.458 million, and the Housing Starts decreased by 14.7% to 1.321 million. The focus of investors today will be the publication of a monthly economic report from the US Federal Reserve, the Beige Book, which characterizes the state of the economy in the twelve federal districts of the country and contains information on all types of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market and other indicators at the moment. In Japan, March inflation data will be presented on Friday, with forecasts suggesting that the National Consumer Price Index will adjust from 2.8% to 2.7%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows multidirectional trading dynamics, consolidating near 2380.00. The instrument is supported by concerns about a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has once again become the focus of investors' attention after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Now analysts are analyzing what Israel’s response might be and whether this will lead to an even greater aggravation of the situation in the region. Additional support for gold is also provided by expectations of the imminent launch of programs to reduce interest rates by the world's leading central banks against the backdrop of a further reduction in inflation risks. At the same time, investors are revising their expectations regarding a possible adjustment of the value by the US Federal Reserve in June and are now counting on a later date, arguing for this by the strong performance of the American economy. Macroeconomic statistics published yesterday put little pressure on the US dollar: the Building Permits issued in March decreased by 4.3% after growing by 2.3% in the previous month. In absolute terms, the figure dropped from 1.523 million to 1.458 million, while analysts expected 1.514 million. The Housing Starts lost 14.7% after increasing by 12.7% in February, and in absolute terms, the figure decreased from 1.549 million to 1.321 million, with a forecast of 1.480 million.