• Mexican Peso depreciates more than 1.8%, driven by Middle East tensions and robust US economic data.
• The IMF cuts Mexico's growth forecast, expecting tighter fiscal policies ahead.
• Mexico aims to reduce its fiscal deficit by half through major spending cuts, potentially dampening growth.
• Market eyes upcoming Mexico’s Retail Sales data and comments from Fed Chair Powell.

The Mexican Peso trips down and plunges more than 1.8% against the US Dollar on Tuesday, courtesy of risk aversion. An escalation of Middle East conflict looms, along with solid economic data from the United States (US) and overall US Dollar strength. The USD/MXN trades at 17.04, bouncing off daily lows of 16.68.

Mexico’s economic docket remains absent, with the next significant data release being March Retail Sales, scheduled for April 19, 2024. In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downwardly revised economic growth in Mexico from 2.7% to 2.4% in 2024 and from 1.5% to 1.4% in 2025.

The IMF reduced its 2025 forecast, arguing that the fiscal expansion that will drive progress this year will be reversed in the next year because the new administration will have to tighten its belt, reversing existing spending policy.

In that regard, Mexico’s Ministry of Finance expects the fiscal deficit to decrease from 5% to 2.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year, which would imply a cut in spending of 833.6 billion Pesos, according to the Pre-General Policy Criteria Economic 2025.

Across the border, US economic data was mixed, with housing figures missing estimates, while Industrial Production stood pat. Traders are bracing for Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 17:15 GMT.