EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, developing the "bearish" dynamics formed in the middle of last week, when the euro retreated from local highs and the level of 1.0885. The instrument is testing the support level of 1.0600, while investors are awaiting macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. Today at 11:00 (GMT 2), data from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. It is expected that the Economic Sentiment index in Germany will rise from 31.7 points to 35.1 points in April, and in the eurozone – from 33.5 points to 37.2 points. Also, March inflation statistics in Italy will be presented today. According to forecasts, no changes are expected compared to the previous estimate, which reflected an increase in the Consumer Price Index of 0.1% monthly and 1.3% annualized. At 16:30 (GMT 2) there will be a speech by the President of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, who can clarify the prospects for a possible interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the near future. Tomorrow, key March inflation statistics in the eurozone will hit the market: forecasts are neutral and assume an increase in the Consumer Price Index of the previous 0.8% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Also, on Wednesday, speeches will be given by representatives of the ECB, including the President of the regulator, Christine Lagarde. In turn, today in the United States statistics will be published on Industrial Production and Housing Starts. Analysts expect Production to accelerate in March from 0.1% to 0.4%, while Housing Starts could fall from 1.521 million to 1.480 million.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair shows a slight decline, remaining close to 1.2430 and local lows dated November 17, 2023. The pound is under pressure today from statistics on the British labor market: the Unemployment Rate in February over the past three months rose from 4.0% to 4.2%, the Employment Change decreased by 156.0 thousand after -89.0 thousand in the previous month, and the Claimant Count Change increased in March from 4.1 thousand to 10.9 thousand, which, however, turned out to be lower than market expectations of 17.2 thousand. In turn, Average Earnings Including Bonus again increased in February by 5.6%, with preliminary estimates at 5.5%. On Wednesday at 8:00 (GMT 2) March inflation statistics will be published in the UK: it is expected that in annual terms the Consumer Price Index will slow down from 3.4% to 3.1%, and in monthly terms it will add 0.6%. The Core CPI excluding Food and Energy could fall from 4.5% to 4.1%, confirming market confidence that the Bank of England will soon begin to reduce borrowing costs. The Retail Price Index in March is projected to fall from 4.5% to 4.2%. Previously, some officials warned investors against overly optimistic forecasts: last week, a member of the Bank of England board, Megan Greene, said that the transition to a "dovish" course would take some time, since the rate of price growth in the services sector remains high. Tomorrow there will be speeches by representatives of the British regulator, including its Governor Andrew Bailey, who can comment on new inflation data. The US currency was moderately supported on Tuesday by statistics on Retail Sales in the US, published the day before: in March, the indicator slowed down from 0.9% to 0.7% against expectations of 0.3%, and Retail Sales excluding Autos accelerated from 0.6% to 1.1%, while experts assumed 0.4%.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing a fairly active decline, developing the strong "bearish" impetus formed in the market in the middle of last week. The instrument is testing 0.6420 for a breakdown, updating local lows from November 14, 2023. Investors are focusing on statistics from China, which show Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2024 from 5.2% to 5.3% in annual terms, with expectations of 5.0%. In quarterly terms, the Chinese economy gained 1.6% after 1.2% in the previous quarter. At the same time, data on Industrial Production and Retail Sales turned out to be negative: in March, Production rates slowed from 7.0% to 4.5%, while analysts expected 5.4%, and Sales volumes decreased from 5.5% to 3.1% with preliminary estimates of 4.5%. In the US today, March statistics on Industrial Production and Housing Starts will hit the market. Experts suggest that Production will increase from 0.1% to 0.4%, while the volume of Housing Starts may decrease from 1.521 million to 1.48 million. On Thursday, Australia will publish March labor market indicators: the Employment Change is expected to drop from 116.5 thousand to 7.2 thousand, and the Unemployment Rate will rise from 3.7% to 3.9%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is trading with near-zero dynamics, holding at 154.30. Market activity remains quite low due to the lack of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. The dollar was moderately supported the day before by data on the dynamics of Retail Sales: in March, the figure slowed down from 0.9% to 0.7%, while analysts expected 0.3%, and Retail Sales excluding Autos increased from 0.6% to 1.1%, contrary to forecasts of a slowdown to 0.4%. Today at 19:15 (GMT 2), US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak, but his speech is unlikely to have a strong impact on quotes. Japan will publish March foreign trade data tomorrow. February statistics reflected an increase in Exports by 7.8% and Imports by 0.5%, which allowed the Trade Balance to be fixed at -379.4 billion yen. More confident growth of the instrument is currently hampered by fears of possible foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Japan.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair resumed moderate growth attempts, testing 2390.00. The instrument is supported by mixed market sentiment, as well as the absence of significant drivers for strengthening the American currency. Investors agreed that the US Federal Reserve will likely be in no rush to cut borrowing costs anytime soon and may delay its first 25 basis point adjustment until September. The main scenario for 2024 now assumes only two interest rate cuts, but some analysts are making bolder assumptions, which, in particular, involve further increases in the rate. In particular, UBS Group AG experts believe that if inflation consolidates above 2.5% in 2025, the American regulator may decide to increase the interest rate to 6.50%. At the same time, investors will pay attention to the upcoming meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. It is expected that the European regulator could announce a 25 basis point cut in borrowing costs in July, which would set a precedent and lead to similar decisions from other global central banks. Today, statistics on inflation in Canada will be published, and there will also be speeches by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. It is expected that in monthly terms the Canadian Consumer Price Index will rise from 0.3% to 0.7% in March, which may also affect the regulator's future monetary policy. In the US, data on Industrial Production and Housing Starts will also be presented during the day. Production is forecast to rise moderately in March from 0.1% to 0.4%.