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EUR/USD FORECAST: EURO SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LIFE DESPITE OVERSOLD CONDITIONS

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  • EUR/USD trades within a touching distance of 1.0600 early Tuesday.
  • The pair remains technically oversold in the near term.
  • Fed Chairman Powell will speak on economic outlook and policymaking later in the day.

Following a short-lasting recovery attempt during the European trading hours, EUR/USD lost its traction and closed the first trading day of the week in negative territory. The pair struggles to stage a rebound and trades within a few pips of 1.0600 early Tuesday.

Easing geopolitical tensions limited the US Dollar's (USD) upside in the first half of the day on Monday and helped EUR/USD edge higher. After the data from the US showed that Retail Sales increased at a stronger pace than expected in March, however, US Treasury bond yields shot higher and allowed the USD to regather its strength.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly cautioned against acting urgently, saying that they need to be confident that inflation is on its way to the 2% target before taking a policy action.


 

Housing Starts and Building Permits data for March will be featured in the US economic docket on Tuesday. Later in the American session, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak alongside Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on the economic outlook and monetary policymaking.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets see a nearly 80% probability that the Fed will hold the policy rate unchanged in June. This positioning suggests that the USD has some more room on the upside in case Powell adopts a hawkish tone.

In the meantime, US stock index futures trade in negative territory. In case Wall Street's main indexes continue to push lower following Monday's sharp decline, the USD could benefit from safe-haven flows and make it difficult for EUR/USD to find a foothold


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