EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a sharp decline at the end of last week, as a result of which the instrument updated local lows from November 3, 2023. Currently, quotes are testing 1.0650 for a breakout, while investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. Meanwhile, the single currency's position is being pressured by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to cut borrowing costs earlier than the US Federal Reserve. Last week, the European regulator held a meeting on monetary policy, keeping the key interest rate at a record level of 4.50%. At the same time, in the follow-up statement, officials noted that inflation continues to actively decline, outpacing medium-term forecasts. Coupled with weak economic activity and growing problems in the region's economy, this will likely be a reason for a decrease in the rate by 25 basis points in June. The US Federal Reserve, on the contrary, is postponing the transition to "dovish" rhetoric to a later time. Now experts are not even counting on July, but on September, while some analysts do not rule out that the regulator, under favorable circumstances, may postpone the decision until the end of the year. Friday's macroeconomic statistics had little impact on the dynamics of the instrument: the Harmonized Consumer Price Index in Spain in March rose from 1.3% to 1.4% on a monthly basis and from 3.2% to 3.3% on an annual basis. In turn, data from the US reflected a noticeable decline in the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan in April from 78.4 points to 77.9 points, which was below market expectations of 79.0 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with positive dynamics, recovering from an active decline last Friday, which led to an update of local lows dated November 17, 2023. The instrument is testing 1.2460 for a breakout, while investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. On Tuesday, labor market data for February and March will arrive on the market: analysts expect the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.0% in March, while Average Earnings Including Bonus may accelerate slightly from 5.6%, and from 6.1% Excluding Bonus. On Wednesday, April 17, March statistics on consumer and producer inflation will be presented in the UK. Fluctuations in indicators could put additional pressure on the Bank of England, which, like the European Central Bank (ECB), is waiting for a better moment to launch a program to reduce borrowing costs. On the same day, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech. He may present updated forecasts for the regulator’s transition to "dovish" rhetoric in the near future. The focus of investors' attention today will be on American statistics on retail sales in March: it is expected that the figure will slow down from 0.6% to 0.3%, and excluding autos, it will rise from 0.3% to 0.4%. In addition, Sarah Breeden, a representative of the Bank of England, will give a speech today.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing uncertain growth, retreating from the local lows of November 14, updated in the first hours of trading on Monday. The instrument is breaking "bearish" pressure that emerged late last week in response to the risks that the US Federal Reserve will abandon the idea of lowering borrowing costs in June. Now analysts are increasingly counting on an interest rate adjustment in September; however, this may also be called into question given the strength of the American economy and the risks of increased inflation. Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand published last Friday put additional pressure on the instrument's position. Thus, the Manufacturing PMI in March decreased from 49.1 points to 47.1 points, and Electronic Card Retail Sales in annual terms decreased by 3.0% after an increase of 2.5% in the previous month, while in monthly terms the indicator lost 0.7% after -2.0% in February. In turn, statistics from the United States presented on Friday reflected a noticeable decline in the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan in April from 79.4 points to 77.9 points, contrary to forecasts of 79.0 points. Today, the growth of corrective sentiment for the instrument is hampered by data on business activity from New Zealand: The Business NZ Performance of Services Index dropped from 52.6 points to 47.5 points in March.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing active growth, building on the "bullish" momentum of last week and updating record highs. The instrument is testing 153.85 for a breakout, receiving support from expectations regarding the postponement of the start of easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Against the backdrop of positive macroeconomic statistics and persistent inflation, investors are increasingly counting on the fact that the transition to the "dovish" rate will take place no earlier than the September meeting of the regulator, and some experts admit that it will be postponed until the end of the year. In turn, further increases in quotes today seem to be limited due to the likelihood of the Bank of Japan intervening in the current situation. The yen did not show expected gains after regulators abandoned negative interest rates last month. The Bank's officials blamed speculators, who, in their opinion, led to an unreasonable weakening of the national currency. Macroeconomic statistics put additional pressure on the yen on Friday. Industrial Production in Japan fell 0.6% in February from -0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected no change, and in annual terms the figure fell from -3.4% to -3.9%. American data, in turn, reflected a noticeable decline in the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan in April from 79.4 points to 77.9 points, with a forecast of 79.0 points.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2350.00. At the end of last week, quotes updated record highs, approaching the level of 2430.00, but the "bulls" failed to consolidate at this level, and many investors preferred to take profits on long positions. The upward trend continues to be supported by geopolitical risks, as well as expectations that the world's leading central banks will soon return to lower borrowing costs. In particular, the European Central Bank (ECB) may adjust interest rates as early as June, while the US Federal Reserve looks set to ease monetary policy somewhat later. At the moment, markets are increasingly leaning towards a scenario with the first reduction of 25 basis points in September. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States, published on Friday, April 12, put additional pressure on the dollar position. The Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan dropped from 79.4 points to 77.9 points in April, while analysts expected 79.0 points. In turn, the Import Price Index added 0.4% in March, accelerating by 0.1% from the February figure, and in annual terms the value increased by 0.4% after a sharp decline of 0.8% in the previous month. Today, investors will evaluate March macroeconomic statistics on Retail Sales in the United States: it is expected that the indicator will slow down by half compared to February to 0.3%. Also, during the day, the April NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will be published: the value is predicted to increase from -20.9 points to -9.0 points.