EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, developing a strong "bearish" impetus formed on Wednesday after the publication of US inflation statistics. The Consumer Price Index strengthened in March from 3.2% to 3.5% in annual terms against expectations of 3.4%, increasing doubts that the US Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs in June. Now analysts are counting more on the July meeting or are considering a scenario with a rate adjustment at the end of the year. Yesterday, investors also focused on the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As expected, the regulator left the interest rate at 4.50%, emphasizing that further decisions on monetary policy will be determined by the dynamics of inflation expectations, which still remain above target levels. However, experts increasingly agree that the European regulator will begin easing monetary parameters earlier than the American one, since the economic situation in the eurozone is much more vulnerable. Yesterday's statistics from the United States on producer inflation reflected an increase in the Producer Price Index in March by 2.1% in annual terms from 1.6%, while analysts expected 2.2%, and in monthly terms the figure decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%, ahead of forecasts of 0.3%. The Core PPI increased from 2.1% to 2.4%, with preliminary estimates of 2.3%. The focus of investors' attention today is on inflation statistics in Germany: in March, the Consumer Price Index added another 0.4% in monthly terms and 2.2% in annual terms, which coincided with analysts' expectations.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading lower, returning to "bearish" dynamics after an attempt at corrective growth the day before. The instrument is testing 1.2540 for a breakdown, while the day before the pound fell below 1.2510 and updated the local lows of March 24. Yesterday, investors assessed statistics on producer inflation in the United States: in March, the Producer Price Index on an annualized basis accelerated from 1.6% to 2.1%, but decreased on a monthly basis from 0.6% to 0.2%, and the Core PPI excluding Food and Energy increased from 2.1% to 2.4% in annual terms and slowed down from 0.3% to 0.2% in monthly terms. The data contributed to increasing doubts about the US Federal Reserve's readiness to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in June. The pound is moderately supported today by statistics on Industrial Production volumes: in February the value added 1.1% after -0.3% a month earlier, while analysts expected zero dynamics, and in annual terms the figure accelerated from 0.3% to 1.4%, which also significantly exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. In turn, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed down as expected from 0.3% to 0.1%.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows an uncertain decline, leveling the results of the corrective growth the day before, which allowed quotes to retreat from the local lows of April 2. The instrument is testing 0.6525 for a breakdown, while analysts do not expect a large number of macroeconomic statistics to be published at the end of the week. However, in the US today at 17:00 (GMT 2) April data on the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan will be presented: the indicator is predicted to decline from 79.4 points to 79.0 points. Meanwhile, investors continue to evaluate statistics on consumer inflation from China and producer inflation from the United States. The Chinese Consumer Price Index underlined the weakness of the national economy: in March the CPI in annual terms added 0.1% after rising by 0.7% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.4%, and in monthly terms the value lost 1.0% after an increase of 1.0% in February with preliminary estimates of -0.5%. In turn, American data reflected the fact of persistent inflation, which prevents the US Federal Reserve from implementing previous plans for a possible interest rate reduction in June. The Producer Price Index in March rose from 1.6% to 2.1% against expectations of 2.2%, and the Core PPI accelerated from 2.1% to 2.4%, while experts expected 2.3%. The Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations from Melbourne Institute in April adjusted from 4.3% to 4.6% with a forecast of 4.1%, confirming the continued significant pressure in the country's economy and increasing the likelihood of a prolonged high interest rate retention by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near record highs and the level of 153.30. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new long positions on the instrument, fearing possible foreign exchange intervention from the Bank of Japan, which previously accused speculators of the unreasonable weakening of the national currency. The US inflation statistics published the day before did not lead to a noticeable rise in the dollar, but further increased doubts about the US Federal Reserve's readiness to implement plans to ease monetary policy in June. The Producer Price Index in March increased by 2.1% in annual terms and 0.2% in monthly terms, with expectations of 2.2% and 0.3%, respectively. In February, Producer Price Inflation increased by 1.6% and 0.6%. The Core PPI rate excluding Food and Energy accelerated year-on-year from 2.1% to 2.4%, beating forecasts of 2.3%. Today, investors are assessing Japanese Industrial Production statistics: in February the value decreased by 0.6% after -0.1% in the previous month, and in annual terms the rate of decline in production accelerated from -3.4% to -3.9%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing uncertain growth, testing the level of 2385.00. In the first hours of trading on Friday, the instrument managed to get very close to the level of 2400.00; however, many investors prefer to fix long positions at the end of the week. The day before, quotations of the precious metal resumed positive dynamics after a corrective decline on Wednesday, when investors assessed inflation data in the United States. The Consumer Price Index in the US in March in annual terms accelerated from 3.2% to 3.5% and added another 0.4% in monthly terms, and the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy increased by 3.8% in annual terms and 0.4% on a monthly basis, which was higher than market expectations of 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively. US consumer price inflation statistics did not have a noticeable impact on the XAU/USD pair. However, the Producer Price Index in March in annual terms rose from 1.6% to 2.1%, but slowed down from 0.6% to 0.2% in monthly terms, and the Core PPI increased from 2.1% to 2.4% with preliminary estimates of 2.3%. Trading participants also paid attention to the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, leaving the interest rate at 4.50%. At the same time, the comments in the follow-up statement were also predominantly "dovish". The regulator is clearly in no hurry to tighten monetary conditions, fearing a further rise in inflation. The economic situation in the eurozone is significantly more vulnerable than in the United States, so it is likely that the European regulator will reduce borrowing costs earlier than the American one.