EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a slight corrective growth, holding near 1.0745. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions on the instrument, awaiting the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank, which will be presented today at 15:15 (GMT 2). Analysts are confident that the current monetary policy will remain unchanged, but at the same time they expect to receive additional comments and forecasts from officials, and investors are confident that the European regulator will have to act proactively and not wait for the US Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy. This opinion is supported by data on inflation in the United States published yesterday. In March, the Consumer Price Index increased by the previous 0.4%, contrary to forecasts of a slowdown to 0.3% in monthly terms, and rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in annual terms, ahead of expectations of 3.4%. The core CPI excluding Food and Energy adjusted by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.8% on an annual basis, as in the previous period, with the forecast of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Against the background of these data, US Federal Reserve officials may refuse to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the June meeting, and more and more analysts expect the start of adjustment of parameters to be postponed, and some experts suggest that it may be postponed until the end of the year. The focus of investors' attention today is on statistics on producer inflation: forecasts suggest an acceleration of the Producer Price Index in March from 1.6% to 2.2% in annual terms and a reduction from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher, recovering from a sharp decline the day before, which returned the instrument to its previous local lows on March 24. Quotes are testing 1.2545 for a breakout, while trading participants expect the publication of March statistics on Producer Price Indices in the United States at 15:30 (GMT 2), where an acceleration in annual terms is likely from 1.6% to 2.2%, and in monthly terms, a correction is expected from 0.6% to 0.3%, while the Core PPI is likely to rise from 2.0% to 2.3%. Also, during the day, data on Jobless Claims will be presented in the United States: analysts expect a decrease in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 5 from 221.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended March 29 is expected in the area of the previous value of 1.791 million. On Friday, investors will pay attention to statistics on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production in the UK. A slowdown in the growth rate of the national economy is predicted from 0.2% to 0.1%, as well as an increase in Industrial Production from 0.5% to 0.6% in annual terms and from -0.2% to 0.0% in monthly terms. In the US, on the same day, trading participants will evaluate April data on the Consumer Confidence index from the University of Michigan: the indicator is expected to decline from 79.4 points to 79.0 points.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating near 0.6516. The instrument is uncertainly recovering Wednesday’s losses, when the results of last week’s "bullish" dynamics were almost completely leveled out. The driver of the sharp downward dynamics was the US inflation data published the day before, which increased investor doubts about the possibility of easing monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in June: in March, the Consumer Price Index added another 0.4%, contrary to forecasts of a slowdown to 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator accelerated from 3.2% to 3.5%, against expectations of 3.4%. Core CPI showed an increase of 0.4% in monthly terms and 3.8% in annual terms, while analysts expected 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Today, investors are focusing on statistics from Australia and China. The Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflation Expectations Index adjusted to 4.6% from 4.3% in April, reflecting increasing price pressures in the country, which is likely to discourage monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Chinese data showed a sharp slowdown in annual inflation in March from 0.7% to 0.1%, while analysts had expected 0.4%, and in monthly terms the value fell 1.0% after rising 1.0% a month earlier, while experts assumed -0.5%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is retreating from record highs around 153.20, updated the day before. The instrument is trying to consolidate below 153.00, under pressure from technical factors and concerns about possible currency intervention by the Bank of Japan. Previously, officials noted that the decline in the national currency was mainly caused by speculative actions and did not rule out intervention in the market situation if the rapid downward dynamics of quotes continued. The position of the American currency, in turn, received support from March inflation statistics in the United States: the Consumer Price Index in annual terms accelerated from 3.2% to 3.5%, ahead of forecasts of 3.4%, and in monthly terms - by the previous 0.4%, contrary to expectations of a decrease to 0.3%. Core CPI excluding Food and Energy added another 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, while analysts expected a slowdown to 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. The strong data will likely lead to the US Federal Reserve maintaining a wait-and-see approach regarding monetary easing in the second half of the year. However, markets are still counting on two or three interest rate cuts before the end of 2024. Yesterday's statistics from Japan had no impact on the instrument: Bank Lending volumes in March increased from 3.0% to 3.2% with preliminary estimates at 3.1%, the Producer Price Index for corporate goods increased by 0.8%, accelerating from 0.7% in February, and the Producer Price Index rose by another 0.2%, while experts expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, speaking in Parliament, said that the regulator will not focus on changes in the yen exchange rate when determining monetary policy, denying the possibility of raising the interest rate to support the national currency.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is again showing growth, correcting after a moderate decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate at new record highs near 2360.00. The reason for the appearance of negative dynamics the day before was the March data on inflation in the United States, which increased doubts regarding the proposed easing of monetary parameters by the US Federal Reserve in June: the Consumer Price Index in annual terms increased from 3.2% to 3.5% with a forecast of 3.4%, and in monthly terms the indicator added 0.4%, while analysts expected 0.3%. Core CPI excluding Food and Energy remained at the same level of 3.8% against expectations of 3.7%. Investors also paid attention to the results of the meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada: as expected, both regulators kept the interest rate at the same level, which further strengthened investors’ doubts regarding the pace of monetary policy easing by the world’s leading central banks in the second half of the current year. Today at 15:15 (GMT 2) traders will evaluate the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), from which no changes in monetary parameters are expected. In addition, in the United States at 15:30 (GMT 2) March data on producer inflation will be presented: the PPI is likely to rise from 1.6% to 2.2% in annual terms and decrease from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms. The Core Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy could accelerate from 2.0% to 2.3%.