The United States of America

The US dollar is strengthening against EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Positive dynamics are developing against the statistics published today, which confirmed increased inflationary pressure. In March, the consumer price index amounted to 0.4% MoM instead of the predicted 0.3% and increased from 3.2% to 3.5% YoY, also beating estimates of 3.4%. The core value reached 0.4% against the calculated 0.3% MoM and 3.8% instead of 3.7% YoY. Thus, the indicators have exceeded forecasts for four months, and under these conditions, the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve starting to ease monetary policy in June, as previously expected by most experts, is significantly reduced, and now, regulator officials can keep interest rates high until the fall.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against JPY, GBP, and USD.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, currency movements are due to external factors. Yesterday, Italian government officials decreased their economic growth estimates for the current year and announced an expected increase in public debt. The country's economy is now the third largest in the EU, behind only Germany and France, and officials expect gross domestic product (GDP) to add 1.0% by the end of the year instead of 1.2%, as previously thought, and next year it could reach 1.2% compared to forecasts of 1.4%. In addition, the state budget deficit for 2024 reaches 4.3%. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told reporters that the difficult geopolitical situation was contributing to the decline. Investors are preparing for tomorrow's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB): analysts assume that interest rates will be kept at the same levels (key rate 4.50%, deposit rate 4.40%, margin rate 4.75%).

Great Britain

GBP is strengthening against EUR but weakening against JPY and the USD.

According to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the country's cost of living crisis is easing: in January, only 7.4M people had difficulty paying bills and repaying loans, although 10.9M people experienced similar difficulties in the same period last year. According to a survey conducted by officials in January, 72.0% of the population was able to cope with debt obligations, compared to 64.0% a year ago. Positive dynamics in indicators in the long term will contribute to economic growth and the strengthening of the pound.

Japan

JPY is weakening against the USD, but strengthening against GBP and EUR.

In March, the price index for corporate goods remained at the same level of 0.2% MoM instead of the expected 0.3% and increased from 0.7% to 0.8% YoY, justifying forecasts and contributing to the acceleration of consumer price growth, which corresponds to the plans of Japanese officials. The volume of bank lending increased by 3.2%. Meanwhile, speaking in Parliament, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the regulator will not rely on changes in the yen rate when determining monetary policy, denying the possibility of raising interest rates to support the national currency. However, the official made it clear that a new increase in borrowing costs will be possible if inflation is fixed at 2.0%.

Australia

AUD is weakening against EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

On Thursday, investors will pay attention to data on expected inflation for April and February statistics from the real estate market. The consumer price index is forecast to fall from 4.3% to 4.1%, above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2.0–3.0% and keeping interest rates further elevated. The total volume of building permits may decrease by 1.9%, and the rate of issued permits for the construction of private houses may increase by 10.7%.

Oil

The morning rise in oil prices gave way to a decline.

The market is influenced by previous opposing factors. It is supported by stagnation in the process of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement but significant price growth is limited by the likelihood of a shift in the timing of the transition to the “dovish” course of the US Fed for the second half of the year and an increase in American oil reserves. Yesterday, Hamas representatives said that Israeli peace proposals do not meet the interests of the Palestinians, and the lack of consensus continues to contribute to the persistence of risks of military escalation and disruptions in the oil supply from the region. At the same time, inflation in the United States began to accelerate again, contributing to the continued maintenance of high interest rates and the strengthening of the dollar relative to alternative assets. The American Petroleum Institute (API) report on reserves published yesterday reflected an increase of 3.034M barrels. Today, investors are expecting similar data from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA): according to preliminary estimates, the figure could rise by 0.900M barrels, putting additional pressure on the quotes.