EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows multidirectional trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0850. Market activity remains subdued as trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of US inflation statistics, which will take place today at 14:30 (GMT 2). The Consumer Price Index is projected to increase from 3.2% to 3.4% in annual terms and decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% in monthly terms. The Core CPI excluding Food and Energy may be adjusted from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 3.8% to 3.7% on an annual basis. At 20:00 (GMT 2), traders will pay attention to the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's March monetary policy meeting, which can assess the likelihood of an interest rate cut in June. In turn, the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will take place tomorrow at 15:15 (GMT 2) and analysts do not expect any changes in monetary policy. At the same time, markets expect that the European regulator may begin preparations for a possible interest rate cut in June. Despite the fact that inflation in the region is slowing down, the pace of economic recovery is insufficient, which, in turn, acts as a driver for more decisive steps by the ECB.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with near-zero dynamics, holding near 1.2675. The day before, the instrument showed quite active growth, and also updated local highs from March 21, which was the market’s reaction to the lack of important macroeconomic statistics. UK Retail Sales from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) increased 3.2% in March after rising 1.0% the month before, while analysts had expected 1.8%. Consortium experts note that the Easter holidays led to a significant increase in demand for food, but overall sales growth remains subdued due to bad weather and high inflation: for example, in the first quarter, spending on food increased by 6.8%, and spending on non-food products decreased by 1.9%. In turn, American statistics on Business Optimism from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) turned out to be negative: in March the indicator decreased from 89.4 points to 88.5 points, with a forecast of 90.2 points. At the same time, with the opening of the American trading session, the dollar's position began to gradually strengthen as investors revise expectations regarding the expected reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve in June. Currently, the probability of such a scenario has dropped below the psychological level of 50.0%; however, many trading participants prefer to wait for the publication of March statistics on consumer and industrial inflation in the United States on Wednesday and Thursday. The Consumer Price Index is expected to increase from 3.2% to 3.4% in annual terms and decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% in monthly terms. The annualized Core CPI is likely to slow down from 3.8% to 3.7%, still well above the 2.0% target. There is a high probability that the US Federal Reserve will postpone the easing of monetary policy to a later date, which will support the American currency. On Friday, the UK will present February data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production. According to forecasts, the national economy will slow down from 0.2% to 0.1%, while production volumes will show zero dynamics in monthly terms after -0.2% a month earlier, and in annual terms will be adjusted from 0.5% to 0.6%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair shows moderate growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing 0.6075 for a breakout, updating local highs from March 21 against the backdrop of decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy. As expected, the interest rate was kept at 5.50%, and in the follow-up statement, officials noted that inflation risks remain significant, so borrowing costs will remain at barrier levels for a long time. Monetary authorities said they expect a further slowdown in economic activity both within the country and among its main trading partners, while the US economy, for example, has shown resilience. Apparently, the New Zealand regulator expects that some of the world's leading central banks will nevertheless begin easing monetary parameters in the middle or towards the end of the year, which will allow them to obtain more analytical data and then assess the market response. The NZD/USD pair was put under some pressure yesterday by data from New Zealand: the Business Confidence index from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) fell sharply by 25.0% in the first quarter after -2.0% in the previous period. Investors will focus today on American inflation statistics: forecasts suggest an increase in annual dynamics from 3.2% to 3.4%, which may put additional pressure on the US Federal Reserve, whose representatives already doubt the advisability of lowering the interest rate in June. Today at 20:00 (GMT 2), trading participants will pay attention to the March minutes of the meeting of the American regulator, which may more accurately reflect the current sentiments of members of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading: investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of today's publication of macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the United States. The market expects the Consumer Price Index to rise in March from 3.2% to 3.4% in annual terms, while the monthly figure could fall from 0.4% to 0.3%. Core CPI excluding Food and Energy is likely to adjust from 3.8% to 3.7% and from 0.4% to 0.3%, respectively. There are concerns that strong inflation data will be a barrier for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June. Markets currently estimate the likelihood of monetary policy easing to begin in June at 49.0%, while last week the figure was close to 60.0%. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, published today, do not affect the dynamics of the instrument. Bank Lending increased from 3.0% to 3.2% in March, which turned out to be slightly better than expectations at 3.1%, the Producer Price Index for corporate goods accelerated from 0.7% to 0.8%, and the Producer Price Index remained at 0.2%, contrary to forecasts of 0.3%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair continues its moderate growth in the short and medium term, updating new record highs: the instrument is testing 2360.00 for a breakout, while trading participants await the emergence of new drivers. Among other things, today at 14:30 (GMT 2) March inflation statistics in the US will be presented, which may clarify the prospects for a possible reduction in borrowing costs in June. Forecasts call for the Consumer Price Index to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%, while the Core CPI will adjust from 3.8% to 3.7%. Also, at 20:00 (GMT 2), minutes of the March meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published, which may clarify the regulator’s plans and forecasts for the near future. Tomorrow, American statistics on producer inflation will hit the market: the Producer Price Index is expected to increase from 1.6% to 2.2% in annual terms and slow down from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms. The PPI excluding Food and Energy is likely to rise from 2.0% to 2.3%. In addition, on Wednesday at 15:15 (GMT 2) the European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision. It is expected that the regulator will leave the interest rate at 4.50%, but will begin preparing the market for a possible decrease in the rate by 25 basis points in June, given the further slowdown of the region’s economy.