The United States of America

USD currency is strengthening moderately against EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Investors focus on the Friday publication of March data on the American labor market, which was stronger than experts expected. Employment increased by 303.0K, significantly higher than both the forecasts of 212.0K and 270.0K earlier, the unemployment rate corrected from 3.9% to 3.8%, and average hourly wages increased from 0.2% to 0.3% MoM and from 4.3% to 4.1% YoY. Statistics have increased the likelihood that the start date for monetary policy easing will shift from June to the second half of the year. In this regard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Dallas, Laurie Logan, said it was too early to think about lowering interest rates since the danger of inflation stabilizing above the target level remained. A similar opinion was expressed by US Federal Reserve Board member Michelle Bowman, noting that due to the continued risks of a new acceleration in consumer price growth, it was premature to switch to the “dovish” rhetoric. Investors are awaiting key March inflation data for March. If the figure exceeds expert expectations, the likelihood of high borrowing costs remaining high for a long time will increase, supporting the national currency.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against USD, strengthening against JPY and has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

In February, the volume of exports of German goods adjusted by –0.2%, exceeding the expected decline of 0.5%, and the volume of imports – by 3.2% compared to the expected decline of –1.0%. The trade surplus remained at 21.4B euros, although experts expected an increase to 25.1B euros. The negative dynamics were due to a reduction in supplies to Eurozone countries by 3.9%, while exports of products to countries outside the European bloc added 0.4%. On the other hand, production in Germany changed by 2.1% against preliminary estimates of 0.6%. However, experts are restrained, believing that until the end of the year, growth remains poor under the pressure of low demand.

The United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against USD, strengthening against JPY and has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, currency movements are due to external factors. According to a survey of representatives of the largest British companies conducted by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd., their concern about economic uncertainty in the country is decreasing. However, they are in no hurry to invest, seeking to reduce costs and increase financial reserves instead. The central problematic factor is geopolitical tension, while concerns about high inflation have faded into the background. Most corporate representatives expect it to further decline and the Bank of England to move towards easing monetary policy.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

The country’s current trade account surplus reached 2.64T yen in February, its thirteenth consecutive increase, while exports increased 5.5% YoY, driven by external demand for automobiles and auto parts. Imports showed positive dynamics for the first time in the last eleven months, adding 1.4% amid increased demand for clothing, computer equipment, and petroleum products.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, GBP and USD.

In February, housing lending grew by 1.6%, less than the 2.3% expected but significantly better than the –0.9% shown earlier. The level of real estate investment adjusted by 1.2% compared to preliminary estimates of 3.0% and a decrease of 0.8% in the previous period. So, the Australian construction market is recovering, which will help strengthen the national economy.

Oil

The morning decline in oil prices gave way to growth.

The negative dynamics followed signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: Over the weekend, Israel said it would withdraw some of its troops from the southern Gaza Strip, and representatives of Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement resumed peace talks mediated by Egypt. They have not yet led to any compromises. However, the possibility of concluding a truce yesterday, the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha remains. On the other hand, against the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern conflicts, the potential for a downward correction in oil prices in the medium term looks limited.