EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs of March 21, updated the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0825 for a breakdown, while trading participants are awaiting today's publication of March statistics on the US labor market. The dynamics of Nonfarm Payrolls is projected to slow down from 275.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, while the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.9%. At the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings in monthly terms may increase from 0.1% to 0.3%, and in annual terms - decrease from 4.3% to 4.1%. In general, investors hope to receive signals about a possible change in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy this year. Earlier in the week, the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, reaffirmed the likelihood of a reduction in borrowing costs in 2024, but no specific timing was given. Moreover, the official calls not to rush into easing monetary conditions, since current macroeconomic data reflect the sufficient strength of the American economy. In turn, statistics on business activity in the eurozone reflected an increase in the Services PMI from S&P Global from 51.1 points to 51.5 points and in the Composite PMI from 49.9 points to 50.3 points with neutral forecasts. Today, investors are assessing data on Factory Orders in Germany: in February, the indicator added 0.2% after a sharp decline of 11.4% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.8%, and in annual terms the dynamics slowed down by 10.6% after -6.2% in January.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with slightly negative dynamics, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before, when the instrument retreated from the local highs of March 21. Quotes are testing 1.2625 for a breakdown; however, further development of the decline is limited by expectations of the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which may lead to a revision of the timing of the regulator's transition to easing monetary policy in June, especially since at the moment the probability of such a scenario barely exceeds 50.0%. One way or another, it is assumed that the national economy in March will create about 200.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector after 275.0 thousand in the previous month, and the Average Hourly Earnings will increase from 0.1% to 0.3% in monthly terms and will decrease from 4.3% to 4.1% in annual terms. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at the level of 3.9%. Investors are assessing not the most optimistic data on jobless claims presented the day before: for the week ended March 29, Initial Jobless Claims increased from 212.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, while analysts expected 214.0 thousand and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended March 22 fell from 1.81 million to 1.791 million. In turn, British statistics on business activity did not meet the expectations of experts: in March, the Services PMI from S&P Global decreased from 53.4 points to 53.1 points, and the Composite index - from 52.9 points to 52.8 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing a fairly active decline, correcting after a three-day rally, which led to the renewal of local highs from March 22. The instrument is testing 0.6000 for a breakdown, while trading participants are awaiting the publication of the March report on the US labor market. Analysts suggest a slowdown in the dynamics of Nonfarm Payrolls from 275.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, as well as a moderate increase in Average Hourly Earnings in monthly terms from 0.1% to 0.3% and a decrease in the indicator in annual terms from 4.3% to 4.1%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at the previous level of 3.9%. If the forecasts come true, the report will not have a significant impact on market expectations regarding the easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in June. Also, during the day there will be speeches from representatives of the regulator, including Michelle Bowman and Lorie Logan. In turn, in New Zealand, investors noticed an increase in the number of Building Permits issued in February by 14.9% after -8.6% in the previous month. Also, during the week, the instrument was moderately supported by data from China: the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.9 points to 51.5 points in March, and the Services PMI rose from 52.5 points to 52.7 points.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a relatively active decline, developing the "bearish" impetus formed the day before. The instrument is testing 151.20 for a breakdown, and also updates the local lows of March 21. Trading participants are closing part of their long positions in the dollar ahead of the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which assumes a slowdown in Nonfarm Payrolls from 275.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, maintaining the Unemployment Rate at 3.9%, as well as an increase in Average Hourly Earnings from 0.1% to 0.3%. In turn, the yen is supported by cautiously optimistic statistics from Japan. Household Spending fell just 0.5% in February after -6.3% in the previous month, while analysts had expected -3.0%. In turn, the Leading Economic Index increased from 109.5 points to 111.8 points, ahead of forecasts of 111.6 points, and Coincident Index dropped from 112.1 points to 110.9 points. In addition, the yen is strengthening amid expectations of possible currency interventions from the Bank of Japan, as well as concerns about a possible escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing a corrective decline, retreating from record highs near 2300.00, updated the day before. The instrument is testing the support level of 2280.00, while trading participants expect new drivers to appear on the market. Investors will focus on the March report on the American labor market, which may clarify the US Federal Reserve's plans regarding the expected interest rate cut in June. Forecasts assume a slowdown in Nonfarm Payrolls from 275.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, as well as maintaining the Unemployment Rate at 3.9%. In turn, the Average Hourly Earnings may accelerate slightly from 0.1% to 0.3%, increasing inflation risks, and in annual terms the indicator may decrease from 4.3% to 4.1%.