Current trend

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair remains close to the level of 1.2650 and the highs of March 26 against negative dynamics of the American dollar and neutral British macroeconomic statistics.

According to a report from the Bank of England, the February volume of consumer lending decreased from 1.770B pounds to 1.378B pounds, the number of approved mortgage loans increased to 56.09K from 60.38K previously, and their volume increased by 1.51B pounds after correction for –1.07B pounds in January. Data on business activity were published today: in March, services PMI fell from 53.8 points to 53.1 points, and the composite PMI – from 53.0 points to 52.8 points, putting pressure on the pound.

The American dollar is trading at 103.80 in USDX, reacting negatively to yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics: in March, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 52.6 points to 51.4 points, and the corresponding price indicator fell from 58.6 points to 53.4 points. The service PMI adjusted from 52.3 points to 51.7 points. However, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) nonfarm payrolls amounted to 184.0K compared to 155.0K previously, exceeding forecasts of 148.0K and renewing the June high and the average wage increase reached 5.1%, significantly above the target inflation rate, which reflects the continued risk of further price increases in the national economy.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, heading towards the support line of the side channel 1.2800–1.2510.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are far enough from the signal line, and the AO histogram forms corrective bars below the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1.2690, 1.2800.

Support levels: 1.2610, 1.2510.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 1.2610, with the target at 1.2510. Stop loss – 1.2660. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.2690, with the target at 1.2800. Stop loss – 1.2640.