EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing weak growth, developing the corrective impetus formed the day before, when the instrument managed to retreat from its local lows of February 15. Quotes are testing the level of 1.0775, while investors await the publication of macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the eurozone. Analysts expect that in March the Consumer Price Index in annual terms will remain at 2.6%, and the Core CPI will adjust from 3.1% to 3.0%. The inflation data presented yesterday in Germany reflected a decrease in the CPI from 2.5% to 2.2% on an annualized basis, while on a monthly basis the indicator added another 0.4%, contrary to forecasts of an acceleration to 0.6%. The Harmonized CPI also slowed down in annual terms from 2.7% to 2.3%, while experts expected 2.4%. The single currency received additional support yesterday from March data on Manufacturing PMI: the index from S&P Global in Germany increased from 41.6 points to 41.9 points, and in the eurozone as a whole - from 45.7 points to 46.1 points, which completely coincided with the forecasts. In the US today, statistics on Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global will hit the market. Also, during the day, a report from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company will be published on Employment Change, where an increase in the indicator is possible from 140.0 thousand to 148.0 thousand, and a speech will be given by the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding close to 1.2575. Market activity remains subdued as investors await the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Today, the market will receive a March report from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company on Employment Change in the private sector: analysts expect that the figure will increase from 140.0 thousand to 148.0 thousand. Also, at 16:00 (GMT 2), data on Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be presented: the index is predicted to correct from 52.6 points to 52.7 points in March. Finally, on Wednesday there will be several speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, including the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who are expected to clarify the prospects for easing monetary policy this year. Markets continue to see a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June as their main scenario, although the likelihood of such an outcome has gradually diminished in recent weeks. In total, by the end of 2024, analysts expect at least three adjustments to the value by the regulator. In addition, investors are assessing the February data on consumer credit dynamics published yesterday. Net Lending to Individuals increased from 0.8 billion pounds to 2.888 billion pounds, while analysts expected 1.2 billion pounds, and Mortgage Approvals increased from 56.087 thousand to 60.383 thousand, ahead of forecasts of 56.5 thousand. The UK Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global strengthened from 47.5 points to 50.3 points in March and was in growth territory for the first time since July 2022.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows slight growth, developing a weak ultra-short-term upward trend that began to form the day before. The instrument is testing 0.6520 for a breakout, receiving support from cautiously optimistic data from Australia and China. The Australian Manufacturing PMI from AiG in February rose from -12.6 points to -7.0 points, Construction PMI increased from -18.4 points to -12.9 points, and the Industry Index went up from -14.9 points to -5.3 points. Chinese statistics met analysts' expectations and reflected an increase in the Caixin Services PMI in March from 52.5 points to 52.7 points, confirming the trend towards a gradual recovery of the national economy. Investors' attention today will be on data on business activity in the US services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), as well as speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, including the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell. Also, during the day, the market will receive a March report on employment in the private sector from Automatic Data Processing (ADP): according to preliminary estimates, the figure will increase from 140.0 thousand to 148.0 thousand. The findings from ADP come ahead of the release of a final report from the US Labor Department on Friday.

USD/JPY

During the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating near 151.55. The "bulls" are making limited attempts to grow, fearing possible retaliatory actions from the Bank of Japan, which last week openly warned of its readiness to resort to the mechanism of currency intervention. The previous month, the Japanese regulator made a historic decision by abandoning an eight-year period of negative interest rates designed to combat deflationary risks in the national economy. At the same time, the officials noted that the soft monetary policy in the near future will still be continued until inflation reaches target levels. Statistics published yesterday in the US provided moderate support to the dollar, but failed to significantly influence the dynamics of the instrument. Factory Orders in February added 1.4% after -3.8% in the previous month, while analysts expected 1.0%, and the Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week ended March 29 increased from 3.9% to 5.2%. Today, the yen was put under some pressure by data on business activity from S&P Global, which showed a slight decline in the Jibun Bank Services PMI in March from 54.9 points to 54.1 points. In addition, today the US will present March statistics on Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and a report on private sector employment from Automatic Data Processing (ADP): forecasts suggest weak Employment Change growth from 140.0 thousand to 148.0 thousand.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near record highs at 2285.00, supported by expectations that leading global central banks will soon ease monetary policy. The market's main scenario continues to see the US Federal Reserve lower its borrowing costs in June, despite the fact that the latest published data reflected a sufficient margin of safety for the US economy. The Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in March increased from 47.8 points to 50.3 points, while analysts expected 48.4 points. Statistics presented yesterday indicated an increase in Factory Orders by 1.4% after -3.8% in the previous month, while experts expected an increase of 1.0%. JOLTS Job Openings in February increased from 8.748 million to 8.756 million, which was also better than expectations at 8.74 million. The focus of investors today will be the private sector employment report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), as well as business activity data from ISM. Forecasts assume an increase in the Employment Change from 140.0 thousand to 148.0 thousand, while the Services PMI may adjust from 52.6 points to 52.7 points. Also, during the day there will be a number of speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, including the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell.