What to expect in the next JOLTS report?

"Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively," the BLS noted in its January JOLTS report and added: "Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little."

After declining steadily from 10.5 million to 8.85 million in the January-October period, job openings seem to have stabilized below 9 million since. For the upcoming February data, markets expect another slight downtick to 8.79 million from 8.86 million in January. In 2019, before the hit of the Covid-19 pandemic, openings were at an average of around 7 million. Meanwhile, Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 275,000 in February following January’s 229,000 increase (revised from 353,000).

The US Dollar (USD) ended March on a bullish note. The USD Index (DXY), which measures the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, turned north in the second half of the month and closed in positive territory. Although the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) revised Summary of Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers still expect the US central bank to lower the policy rate by a total of 75 basis points (bps) in 2024, upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US helped the USD hold its ground. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 65% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in June.