Current trend

Yesterday, the AUD/USD pair tested the support level of 0.6489, from which it is trying to continue its upward dynamics with the support of the minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting.

The document indicated that officials were not considering raising interest rates and acknowledged that it would take some time before inflation returned to the target level of 2.00%. According to National Australia Bank forecasts, the regulator will most likely postpone monetary policy adjustments until 2025, supporting the national currency in the long term. Then, it may renew the March high of 0.6657.

The American dollar, in turn, increases in value and remains strong against macroeconomic statistics: the manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in March amounted to 50.3 points, better than the forecast of 48.5 points and higher than the previous value of 47. 8 points. Last Friday, the core price index of personal consumption expenditures, which the US Fed focuses on when making decisions on interest rates, was published; in February, it amounted to 2.8% YoY, justifying forecasts, and the previous value was corrected from 2.8% to 2.9%. Given the stable dynamics of the indicator, regulator officials will be able to keep borrowing costs at a high level longer than expected, supporting the American dollar.

Considering that the AUD/USD pair has reached a strong support level of 0.6489, we can assume corrective growth of the asset.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend is downward: the price has reached the support level of 0.6489, from where a correction to the resistance level of 0.6578 is expected, after which short positions with the target at 0.6489 and then 0.6447 are relevant.

The medium-term trend remains upward: the quotes are trying to consolidate below the key trend support area 0.6522–0.6508, after which the trend will change to downward with the target in zone 2 (0.6377–0.6363), and in the event of a return to the support level, long positions with the target at 0.6628 are relevant.

Resistance levels: 0.6578, 0.6657.

Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6447, 0.6353.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.6489 with the target at 0.6578 and stop loss 0.6460. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6447 with the target at 0.6353 and stop loss 0.6485.