EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, developing a strong "bearish" impetus formed the day before: the instrument is testing 1.0730 for a breakdown, updating the local lows of February 15. Traders are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of inflation statistics in Germany, where the indicator is predicted to increase in March from 0.4% to 0.6%, while in annual terms a decrease is expected from 2.5% to 2.2%. and the Harmonized CPI could rise from 0.6% to 0.7% on a monthly basis and fall from 2.7% to 2.4% on an annual basis. Also during the day, data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global will be published in the eurozone. In March, the German PMI is likely to remain at 41.6 points, and the PMI in the eurozone as a whole will remain at 45.7 points. In the US, at 16:00 (GMT 2) February statistics on Factory Orders will be published, recording the change in the number of applications for durable and non-durable goods, where the indicator is likely to be adjusted from −3.6% to 1.0%. In addition, there will be speeches from representatives of the US Federal Reserve, including Michelle Bowman, John Williams and Mary Daly. Pressure on the position of the single currency is also exerted by statistics on business activity in the US from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), published the day before. In March, the Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.8 points to 50.3 points, exceeding forecasts of 48.4 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with negative dynamics, continuing the development of the "bearish" signal formed the day before and updating the local lows of the beginning of last week. The instrument is testing 1.2540 for a breakdown, remaining under pressure from business activity statistics from the US, published the day before. Thus, in March the US Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed active growth from 47.8 points to 50.3 points, with expectations at 48.4 points. At the same time, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global decreased from 52.5 points to 51.9 points. Against this background, markets again began to revise forecasts regarding a possible easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in the near future. Currently, the probability of an interest rate cut in June is again 50.0%, as a strong economy allows the regulator to continue to take a wait-and-see approach. In turn, data on the dynamics of consumer credit will be published in the UK today. It is expected that Net Lending to Individuals in February will increase from 0.8 billion pounds to 1.2 billion pounds, and the Mortgage Approvals - from 55.227 thousand to 56.500 thousand. Also, during the day, March statistics on the UK Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global/CIPS will be presented. Analysts' forecasts suggest that the figure will remain at 49.9 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair shows a slight decline, developing a downward trend in the short and medium term, as well as updating local lows from November 17. The instrument is testing 0.5945 for a breakdown, while trading participants expect new drivers to emerge. Thus, the focus of investors' attention during the day will be the February statistics from the United States on the dynamics of Factory Orders: forecasts suggest that the figure will add 1.0% after a decline of 3.6% in the previous month. Also during the day, there will be speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, who can comment on the unexpectedly strong data on business activity, which reflected the growth of the Manufacturing PMI in March from 47.8 points to 50.3 points, while analysts expected 48.4 points. Today, New Zealand will release statistics on its Dairy Price Index, which uses a weighted average percentage of price changes for nine products sold at the twice-monthly Global Dairy Trade auction. The previous figure fell by 2.8%, which put pressure on the position of the New Zealand currency. Tomorrow, the focus of investors' attention will again be primarily on American statistics. During the day, a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Employment Change is expected to be published, as well as a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Employment Change is expected to increase by 148.0 thousand in March after an increase of 140.0 thousand a month earlier. On Friday, the market will receive data from the US Department of Labor: according to preliminary estimates, in March Unemployment Rate will remain at 3.9%, but Nonfarm Payrolls will slow down to 204.0 thousand, and Average Earnings might decrease to 4.1% on an annualized basis, increasing the likelihood that borrowing costs will begin to decline soon.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed the day before. The American currency was supported by statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector, which increased doubts regarding a possible reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate during the June meeting. Thus, in March, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI showed an increase from 47.8 points to 50.3 points, which turned out to be significantly higher than market expectations of 48.4 points, and ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index increased from 49.2 points to 51.4 points, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid over the same period increased from 52.5 points to 55.8 points, ahead of forecasts of 52.6 points. In turn, yesterday's statistics from Japan turned out to be mixed: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in the first quarter dropped from 13.0 points to 11.0 points, while analysts expected 10.0 points. At the same time, the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index rose from 32.0 points to 34.0 points, ahead of preliminary estimates of 33.0 points. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.2 points in March. More confident growth of the instrument is currently hampered by fears of possible foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Japan.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair continues to grow, testing the level of 2260.00 for a breakout. Gold is supported by previous factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the world's leading central banks. At the same time, the day before, investors reacted to the publication of strong statistics on business activity in the United States. In March, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.8 points to 50.3 points, exceeding forecasts of 48.4 points, which influenced the likelihood of interest rates being cut during the regulator's June meeting, which is now about 50.0%, while last week the figure was above 60.0%. Supports quotes and demand for physical gold from world banks against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical and economic risks. In particular, high interest in the precious metal is recorded among investors from China, where there are still significant difficulties in the real estate sector. At the end of the week in the United States, the final report on the labor market for March is expected to be published: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the Nonfarm Payrolls from 275.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, and the Average Hourly Earnings in annual terms may decrease from 4.3% to 4.1% and increase from 0.1% to 0.3% in monthly terms.