The next step for the Fed is still a cut and a less restrictive rates environment. This should be favourable for Gold, economists at OCBC Bank say.
Risk of pullback in the near term
We continue to maintain a constructive outlook on Gold on expectations that real rates should eventually correct lower (especially after the recent rise). This should happen when the Fed embarks on rate cut cycle in 2Q24.
To add, Gold’s risk-off hedge (safe haven proxy) against geopolitical risks and portfolio diversifier is now playing up. But near term, we do not rule out the risk of pullback given the rapid breakout while long Gold positions in CFTC have hit record highs.
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