EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, developing the "bearish" momentum formed on Tuesday, when the instrument retreated from the local highs of March 22. Quotes are testing the level of 1.0775 for a breakdown, while activity on the market is decreasing against the backdrop of closed trading floors on the occasion of the Easter holidays. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index will be published in the United States today. This indicator is actively used by the US Federal Reserve when calculating the average dynamics of inflation in the country, so any changes in it can significantly affect the choice of monetary policy. Forecasts suggest that in February index will show muted growth from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis, with the core indicator remaining unchanged at 2.8%. Also, during the day, February data on the dynamics of Personal Income and Spending of American households will be presented and the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will give a speech. In addition, investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the eurozone countries. The Consumer Price Index in France is expected to slow down from 3.2% to 2.8%, while in Italy the CPI could accelerate from 0.8% to 1.5%. Data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in Germany, published the day before, also exerted noticeable pressure on the euro: in February, the value fell sharply by 2.7% after -1.4% in the previous month, with a forecast of -0.8%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, holding near 1.2625. The instrument is preparing to end the week with slight growth, while trading activity remains low amid the approaching Easter holidays. At the same time, investors are awaiting the publication of one of the key indicators of inflation in the United States - the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index. It is expected that these data will clarify the issue of a possible reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve in June, which is still considered as the main scenario. Forecasts suggest a slight acceleration of the index in February from 0.3% to 0.4% in monthly terms and from 2.4% to 2.5% in annual terms. Meanwhile, the markets received another confirmation of the stability of the American economy the day before, which may force the regulator to continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2023 showed growth of 3.4%, up 0.2% from the previous estimate. In turn, the British indicator failed to provide any noticeable support to the pound, still reflecting a contraction of the national economy by 0.3% quarterly and 0.2% year-on-year. At the same time, the country's balance of payments deficit increased from -18.52 billion pounds to -21.18 billion pounds, while analysts expected -21.4 billion pounds.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing predominantly flat trading, testing 0.6510 for a breakdown: the day before, the instrument was actively declining, updating the local lows of March 5. However, the quotes failed to consolidate at new levels, and traders preferred to close some short positions ahead of the shortened trading week due to Easter. At the same time, today the market will receive macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which may lead to significant fluctuations in the rate of the AUD/USD pair. The Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index is actively used by the US Federal Reserve when calculating the average dynamics of inflation in the country. Forecasts suggest growth in February from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, the instrument is under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published the day before. Retail Sales in February slowed down from 1.1% to 0.3%, while analysts had expected 0.4%, and Consumer Inflation Expectations from the University of Melbourne in March adjusted from 4.5% to 4.3%, which increases the risks of launching a program to reduce borrowing costs by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near 151.30: the instrument is preparing to end the week with a slight decline. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today failed to have a noticeable impact on quotes. However, the Consumer Price Index in the Tokyo region adjusted in March from 2.5% to 2.6%, and the CPI excluding Food and Energy went down from 3.1% to 2.9%. In turn, the Unemployment Rate rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, while analysts did not expect any changes. Industrial Production decreased by 0.1% after -6.7% in the previous month, while experts expected growth of 1.4%, and in annual terms the indicator increased the negative trend from -1.5% to -3.4%. Retail Sales in annual terms increased from 2.1% to 4.6%, ahead of forecasts at 3.0%, and in monthly terms - from 0.2% to 1.5%. Today the US will present February data on Personal Income and Spending, as well as key statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which, according to preliminary estimates, may adjust from 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month and from 2.4% to 2.5% year-on-year.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing sharp growth, developing a fairly active "bullish" impetus formed earlier in the week: the instrument is trying to consolidate above 2230.00, updating record highs. Quotes, as before, are supported by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon announce an interest rate cut by 25 basis points. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability that this will happen in June is approximately 60.0%, and at least three adjustments to the rate are expected by the end of 2024. After the American regulator, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are likely to begin easing monetary policy, which could begin to act in August or as early as early autumn 2024. However, some analysts note that there is no need for the US Federal Reserve to rush, since inflation risks still exist, and macroeconomic statistics indicate sufficient strength of the American economy. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2023 showed growth of 3.4%, which was higher than the previous estimate of 3.2%. In addition, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in March increased from 76.5 points to 79.4 points.