United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR and has ambiguous dynamics with GBP and JPY.

Today, US gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q4 2023, as well as weekly labor market statistics, were published. QoQ, the American economy grew by 3.4% against preliminary expectations of 3.2%. The number of initial jobless claims amounted to 210.0 thousand, being less than both the forecasts of 212.0 thousand and the previous figure of 212.0 thousand, while the total number of citizens receiving benefits from the state increased from 1.795 to 1.819 million Thus, economic growth is slowing down less significantly than experts expected, and the labor market remains resistant to the US Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. Combined with signs of accelerating inflation in January–February, this once again raises the risk of delaying the start of interest rate cuts until the second half of the year, as confirmed by comments from the Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said yesterday that disappointing inflation data was a significant argument in favor of refusal from monetary policy adjustment.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against its main competitors – JPY, GBP, and USD.

Today, February data on retail sales were published: MoM, their volume in the German economy decreased by 1.9% instead of growing by 0.4%, and YoY – by 2.7%, with preliminary estimates of 0.8%. Thus, private consumption in the leading European economy remains weak, increasing the risks of a deepening recession. The unemployment rate in Germany remained at 5.9% in March: experts note that the labor market is under pressure, but its condition is better than expected. According to forecasts, the average unemployment rate this year will be 5.8%, and next year it will decrease to 5.5%. It is also worth noting the comments of European Central Bank (ECB) board member Fabio Panetta, who today said that risks to price stability in the Eurozone are decreasing, paving the way for the start of interest rate cuts. Currently, most experts believe that the European regulator will begin adjusting monetary policy in June.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR and JPY and has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) for Q4 2023: QoQ, the figure decreased by 0.3%, and YoY – by 0.2%, confirming the state of a shallow recession. These data, combined with a cooling labor market and a continued steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin a monetary policy adjustment. Let us recall that in January, unemployment in the UK increased to 3.9%, the average level of wages including bonuses dropped from 5.8% to 5.6%, and the consumer price index (CPI) – from 4.0% to 3.4%.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against EUR, weakening against GBP, and has ambigous dynamics against USD.

A summary of the opinions of Bank of Japan officials was published today, which generally disappointed investors: the document noted the need for a cautious phase-out of ultra-loose monetary policy, and one politician even said that the state of the economy does not yet require a rapid interest rate increase. It is also emphasized that the latest changes were not related to the tightening of parameters but are only an attempt to help prices achieve target levels. It is also worth noting the statements of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who today warned that the government is not ruling out any options for responding to excessive movements in the foreign exchange market. Thus, he once again warned investors about the possibility of currency interventions.

Australia

AUD is weakening against its main competitors – JPY, GBP, EUR, and USD.

Preliminary February data on retail sales were published today: the figure increased by 0.3%, being less than both the predicted growth of 0.4% and the January figure of 1.1%. Households remain under pressure from inflation and high interest rates of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which are holding back consumption growth. It is also worth noting the statement of the Chinese authorities about the lifting of protective duties on Australian wine from March 29, which were introduced three years ago and amounted to 218.4%. Such a decision could provide significant support to producers, who could increase wine exports to the country to 1.1 billion Australian dollars per year.

Oil

Oil prices are actively growing today against the backdrop of investors' expectations of the imminent start of interest rate adjustments by the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of England, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions, increasing the risks of interruptions in the supply of petroleum products.

Local support for quotes is provided by the data on reserves published the day before from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): the figure added 3.165 million barrels, but experts note that its growth was less than could be expected at this time of year.