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EUR/USD RESUMES DOWNTREND ON DIVERGING INTEREST-RATE OUTLOOK

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  • EUR/USD has resumed its short-term downtrend, perhaps due to diverging commentary from central bankers. 
  • European rate-setters are converging on June as the possible moment for a cut in interest rates as inflation slows. 
  • Their counterparts in the US are advocating caution in respect to lower interest rates. 

EUR/USD edges lower, trading in the lower 1.0800s on Wednesday, shrugging off just-released Spanish inflation data for March which met economists’ estimates of 3.2% for the headline plot. 

The pair’s tick lower follows through on the previous day’s bearish reversal from the mid 1.0800s and likely reflects the diverging commentary from rate-setters at the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB). 

Commentary from ECB officials is now indicating a high likelihood it will cut interest rates in June, whilst a delay from the Fed is still possible. This is causing weakness for the Euro and depressing EUR/USD, since lower interest rates tends to reduce foreign capital inflows. 


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