United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR and has ambiguous dynamics with GBP and JPY.

Today, February data on orders for durable goods was published, which turned out to be positive: MoM, the indicator increased by 1.4% against preliminary estimates of 1.2%, and the volume of basic orders increased by 0.5% instead of 0.4%, indicating growing consumer confidence in the prospects for the American economy. Investors are also monitoring comments from US Federal Reserve officials. Speaking at Harvard University, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook supported a cautious approach to lowering interest rates and noted that inflation, especially in the housing sector, remains high, but the situation is likely to stabilize in the near future. The President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), Austan Goolsbee, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, also said that overall inflation is decreasing, but in the housing market it remains quite serious, and noted that he believes in the likelihood of continued price growth, which will open the possibility of easing monetary policy in the coming months.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against its main competitors – JPY, GBP, and USD.

Today, data on the German consumer climate index from Gfk Group for April was published, which turned out to be positive: the index rose from -28.8 points to -27.4 points, above the preliminary estimates of -27.9 points. Thus, consumer sentiment in Europe's leading economy is slowly improving, and more households are finding opportunities to spend more. Gfk Group expert Rolf Buerkl noted that income growth and a stable labor market are themselves very positive prerequisites for a rapid recovery in consumption, but citizens still lack confidence in economic prospects. One should also note the comments from Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras, who today said that a consensus is emerging within the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates in June if inflation continues to slow as forecast. The official also added that four cuts to borrowing costs this year would be “reasonable”.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against JPY, weakening against EUR, and has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the pound is determined by external factors. It is only worth noting the publication of data on food price inflation from Kantar Group, according to which the annualized rate by mid- March increased by only 4.5%, being significantly less than 5.3% a month earlier. Experts note that the rate of price growth has slowed to its lowest level since February 2022, however, almost a quarter of British households are still experiencing financial difficulties.

Japan

The Japanese currency is weakening against the euro and the pound and has mixed dynamics against the US dollar.

Today, a series of inflation data for February was published, which turned out to be ambiguous: for example, prices for corporate services increased by 2.1% YoY against expectations of 2.0%, but the weighted average index decreased from 1.9% to 1.4% , calling into question the confidence of Bank of Japan officials in the stable achievement of the target level of 2.0% by consumer prices, so the regulator may be more cautious about further measures to tighten monetary policy. It is also worth noting comments from Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, who today warned that the government is not ruling out taking measures to curb the weakness of the national currency and noted that excessive volatility of the yen increases uncertainty in business transactions and is therefore undesirable.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against the yen and pound and has mixed dynamics in pairs with the euro and the US dollar.

Today, data on the Westpac consumer sentiment index was published, which turned out to be weak: the indicator decreased from 6.2% to -1.8%. Experts note that the development of negative dynamics was facilitated by the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy, which did not live up to the forecasts of market participants who were hoping for an early start of lowering interest rates. In addition, average household finances adjusted by -1.4% and are likely to continue to decline further.

Oil

Oil prices today have ambiguous dynamics and are trading in narrow lateral ranges, while long-term fundamental factors favor growth in quotes, so one should expect its resumption in the near future.

Comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England are increasingly convincing investors that they will start lowering interest rates between May and July. On the one hand, this will put pressure on national currencies, primarily the US dollar, and strengthen the position of commodity assets, and on the other hand, easing monetary policy stimulates economic growth, and, consequently, an increase in demand for petroleum products. At the same time, negotiations between representatives of Israel and the Hamas movement, which are being conducted in Qatar with the mediation of the United States, have not yet yielded results, which means that there are risks of increased tension in the region and disruptions in oil supplies due to problems with shipping in the Red Sea. Also today, investors are waiting for the publication of weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API): they have been significantly declining for two weeks in a row, most recently by 1.519 million barrels. The continuation of this trend may provide additional short-term support for the prices.