EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near 1.0840 and trying to develop the uncertain "bullish" momentum formed the day before. Activity on the market remains quite low, since there were practically no publications of macroeconomic statistics on Monday, and today investors will evaluate an important indicator for the US Federal Reserve, Durable Goods Orders, which, according to forecasts, may grow in February by 1.3% after -6.2% in the previous month. At the same time, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft is expected at 0.1% after January’s zero dynamics. Also, during the day, the US will present February data on Consumer Confidence and March statistics on Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Towards the close of the day's session, investors will pay attention to the results of the speech of the representative of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane, who may comment on concerns that the regulator will not decide to reduce borrowing costs this coming summer. Tomorrow, the eurozone will present March data on the dynamics of business sentiment: analysts expect a moderate increase in the Economic Sentiment Indicator from 95.4 points to 96.3 points, and the level of Consumer Confidence is expected to remain unchanged at -14.9 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with near-zero dynamics near 1.2640. Activity on the market on Tuesday remains low, but the instrument maintains the "bullish" sentiment of Monday, expecting to restore some more of its positions lost at the end of last week. Earlier, the US dollar received an impetus to growth amid weakening expectations regarding a possible reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve in June. Currently, analysts estimate the probability of such a scenario at slightly more than 60.0%, and it is possible that in the near future this estimate will be revised downwards. Analysts also drew attention to the softening position of the Bank of England, which last week kept the interest rate unchanged, but is increasingly signaling in favor of its adjustment in the near future. Statistics from the UK published on Friday did not have a noticeable impact on the instrument’s dynamics: Retail Sales in February showed zero dynamics after a sharp increase of 3.6% in the previous month, while analysts had expected a decrease of 0.3%, and in annual terms the figure decreased by 0.4% after increasing by 0.5% with forecast at -0.7%. The UK's final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be released on Thursday. Analysts do not expect changes to previous estimates of -0.3% QoQ and -0.2% YoY. At the same time, the final estimate of GDP for the same period will be published in the United States: the American economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in annual terms.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows mixed trading, located near 0.6540: the instrument ended Monday's session with a fairly noticeable increase, mainly due to technical factors. Data published yesterday in the United States put little pressure on the position of the American currency: New Home Sales in February decreased by 0.3% after an increase of 1.7% in the previous month, and New Home Sales Change decreased from 0.664 million to 0.662 million, while analysts expected 0.680 million. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index in March fell from -11.3 points to -14.4 points. Today, investors' attention is focused on statistics on Durable Goods Orders, which the US Federal Reserve actively uses in its calculations. In February, investors expect moderate growth of 1.3% after -6.2% in the previous month. If the index increase is higher than expected, sentiment regarding the expected decline in borrowing costs in June could change again. In turn, pressure on the position of the instrument is exerted by data on consumer confidence presented today in Australia: in March, Westpac Consumer Confidence decreased by 1.8% after increasing by 6.2% a month earlier. Tomorrow, investors will pay attention to the final assessment of CPI dynamics in Australia in February: forecasts suggest a slight increase in the indicator from 3.4% to 3.5%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing near-zero dynamics, holding near 151.37. Investors do not take any actions at the beginning of the week, preferring to wait for new drivers to emerge. At the same time, further growth of the instrument is limited by concerns regarding possible foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Japan. The day before, Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masato Kanda noted that the current weakening of the Japanese currency is the result of speculation and does not correspond to fundamental factors in the market. The official noted that his ministry, together with the Bank of Japan, is ready to take all necessary measures to prevent further sharp weakening of the national currency. At the same time, the yen did not receive noticeable support from the regulator’s decision to abandon the eight-year policy of negative interest rates. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published the day before did not have an impact on the dynamics of the instrument: the Leading Economic Index in January dropped from 109.9 points to 109.5 points, and the Coincident Index from 110.2 points to 112.1 points. Today, traders are awaiting the publication of data on Durable Goods Orders, which US Federal Reserve officials take into account when making decisions on monetary policy: according to preliminary estimates, in February the index adjusted from -6.2% to 1.3%, and Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft went up from 0.0% to 0.1%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near the level of 2170.00 after uncertain growth the day before. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to wait for the emergence of new macroeconomic indicators, as well as comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve, which can clarify the prospects for the timing of the start of softening the Fed’s rhetoric. Markets are still considering the possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June as their main scenario, but as of today the probability of this is barely above 60.0%. In total, no more than 3-4 rate adjustments are predicted this year, but there are still too many risk factors on the market. Today in the US, statistics on Durable Goods Orders will be published: the indicator is expected to grow by 1.3% in February after -6.2% in the previous month, and Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft may add 0.1% after zero dynamics of January. Another indicator, which is actively used by the US Federal Reserve in assessing average inflation in the country, will be presented on Friday, when most of the European markets will be closed for the Easter weekend. The Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index may increase by 0.4% in February after rising by 0.3% a month earlier, and in annual terms the dynamics may accelerate from 2.4% to 2.5%, while the Core index is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8%.