USD/CHF: THE AMERICAN CURRENCY IS TESTING 0.9000 FOR A BREAKOUT

Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is slightly strengthening, testing the resistance level of 0.9000, above which it tried to consolidate on Friday.

The American currency is supported moderately by weakening expectations of a transition to a “dovish” rate by the US Fed in the summer. Positive macroeconomic statistics and new evidence of growing inflation risks allow the regulator to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. The likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the June meeting is slightly above 60.0% against 53.0% last week.

The revision of forecasts could be influenced by the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), whose officials reduced borrowing costs by 25 basis points last week while analysts expected the value to remain at 1.75%. The accompanying statement noted that inflation had not exceeded the target level of 2.0% for several months, and experts did not expect changes in this dynamics soon. Moreover, at the end of 2025, department analysts revised forecasts for the consumer price index from the previous 1.9% to 1.4%. Investors expect at least two more interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

Today, traders are awaiting the publication of durable goods orders data, which US Federal Reserve officials consider in decisions on monetary policy: according to preliminary estimates, in February, it adjusted from –6.2% to 1.3%, and the value excluding defense and aviation goods – from 0.0% to 0.1%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily growing: the price range is expanding, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal: the histogram is above the signal line. Stochastic maintains an upward direction close to the highs, indicating that the American dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9072, 0.9100.

Support levels: 0.8964, 0.8935, 0.8900, 0.8865.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 0.9000, with the target at 0.9072. Stop loss – 0.8964. Implementation time: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 0.9000 and a breakdown of 0.8964, with the target at 0.8900. Stop loss – 0.9000.