EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows moderate growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0930 for a breakout, while investors await the publication of statistics on business activity in the eurozone and the United States. According to forecasts, in March the German S&P Global Services PMI may increase from 48.3 points to 48.8 points, and the Manufacturing PMI - from 42.5 points to 43.1 points. The indicator for the EU, according to analysts’ calculations, will be adjusted from 50.2 points to 50.5 points in the Services PMI and from 46.5 points to 47.0 points in the Manufacturing PMI. In turn, the US Services PMI from S&P Global may decrease from 52.3 points to 52.0 points, and the Manufacturing PMI - from 52.5 points to 51.7 points. The instrument is also significantly supported by the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which ended the day before. As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50%, and also signaled a possible transition to softening rhetoric after receiving additional evidence that inflation is steadily moving towards the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, officials adjusted their forecasts for borrowing costs for 2025, and now markets expect only three reductions in the rate instead of the four that were presented earlier. Currently, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the "dovish" scenario is projected to be implemented in June with a probability of 53.0%, while earlier at the beginning of the week it was just over 60.0%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher, approaching resistance at 1.2800. The instrument is developing a fairly strong "bullish" impetus, formed the day before in response to the publication of the results of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The regulator decided to keep the parameters of the current monetary policy unchanged, confirming previous theses about the need to receive additional signals regarding the confident movement of inflation towards the target of 2.0%. At the same time, officials lowered their interest rate forecasts for 2025 and now expect only three cuts of 25 basis points instead of the previous four. In general, the published minutes turned out to be slightly more "dovish" than expected, strengthening the negative dynamics of the American currency quotes. The focus of investors' attention the day before was on key macroeconomic statistics from the UK on inflation: in February, the Consumer Price Index added 0.6% after declining by the same amount in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.7%, and in annual terms the growth rate of the indicator slowed down from 4.0% to 3.4%, which was below expectations of 3.6%. Core CPI excluding Food and Energy, fell from 5.1% to 4.5%, with a forecast of 4.6%. Most experts assume that monetary easing will begin in June, but current economic conditions increase the likelihood of adjusting parameters as early as May, earlier than members of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). Today at 14:00 (GMT 2) the minutes of the Bank of England meeting will be published, at which, most likely, the current interest rate will be kept unchanged at 5.25%.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing strong growth, developing an upward momentum formed the day before amid the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Officials repeated their previous theses about the need to wait for additional evidence of a reduction in inflation to the target of 2.0%. In addition, the regulator slightly lowered its forecasts for borrowing costs for 2025 and now expects only three adjustments to the value instead of four. Against this backdrop, investors also doubted the possibility of the first interest rate cut of 25 basis points in June. At the moment, the probability of this scenario being realized is 53.0%, whereas previously experts estimated it at 60.0%. Significant support for the instrument today is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. The Employment Change in February added 116.5 thousand after an increase of only 15.3 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected 40.0 thousand, Full-Time Employment increased by 78.2 thousand, and Part-Time Employment by 38.3 thousand. In turn, the Unemployment Rate dropped sharply from 4.1% to 3.7%, with expectations at 4.0%. Statistics on business activity turned out to be ambiguous: the Manufacturing PMI in March dropped from 47.8 points to 46.8 points, and the Services PMI from the Commonwealth Bank strengthened from 53.1 points to 53.5 points.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is correcting after quite active growth, which led to new record highs at 152.00. In turn, pressure on the positions of the American currency is exerted by the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve that ended the day before. As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50%, noting that in order to move to easing monetary policy at the moment it is necessary to wait for confirmation of stable negative inflation dynamics towards the target 2.0%. Officials also corrected their forecasts for borrowing costs for 2025: the current schedule assumes only three reductions in value instead of the previous four, which were announced back in December last year. Following the release of the minutes, expectations for a possible interest rate adjustment in June were adjusted, with markets now forecasting a "dovish" scenario with a probability of 53.0%, while previously, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, it was just over 60.0%. Macroeconomic statistics provide additional support to the yen today: the Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank in March rose from 47.2 points to 48.2 points, and the Services PMI — from 52.9 points to 54.9 points. Markets also paid attention to the active growth of Exports, which added 7.8% in February after an increase of 11.9%, but analysts expected 5.3%, and Imports grew by 0.5%, which led to a noticeable reduction in the trade deficit balance from –1760.3 billion yen to –379.4 billion yen.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing active growth, testing the level of 2200.00: the instrument is developing a strong "bullish" signal, formed the day before in response to the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50% and also confirmed its commitment to a more measured easing of monetary policy in the near future. In addition, officials have revised forecasts for borrowing costs for 2025 and are currently counting on only three reductions in the value instead of the previous four. The Fed’s "dovish" rhetoric led to a weakening of expectations regarding the results of the upcoming regulator’s meeting in June: if previously trading participants were counting on the first interest rate cut this year with a probability of about 60.0%, now, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group FedWatch Tool, it is 53.0%. Today traders will evaluate the results of the meeting of the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Regulators will probably maintain a wait-and-see approach, which may put some pressure on gold positions. During the day, the market will also receive macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the eurozone and the United States. Forecasts for US data suggest a slowdown in the Manufacturing PMI in March from 52.2 points to 51.7 points, and in the Services PMI from 52.3 points to 52.0 points.