EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, holding near 1.0870. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of the results of the two-day US Federal Reserve meeting on rates. Analysts do not expect changes in the parameters of monetary policy, but they are counting on updated comments and forecasts from officials. In particular, the US currency could receive a powerful boost to growth if the regulator indicates only two possible reductions in borrowing costs this year. Markets now view the first 25 basis point adjustment in June as the most likely scenario. During the day, investors will be assessing macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. In addition, investors' attention today is focused on data on producer inflation in Germany, which reflected a correction in the value from 0.2% to -0.4% month-on-month and a slowdown in negative dynamics from -4.4% to -4.1% year-on-year. Also during the day, data will be published on the volume of production in the eurozone construction sector and the level of Consumer Confidence, which could rise from -15.5 points to -15.0 points in March. In addition, trading participants expect to hear additional comments during speeches by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with near-zero dynamics, consolidating near 1.2720. The day before, the instrument showed a fairly active decline, having managed to update the local lows of March 4, but by the time the day session closed, the "bulls" managed to win back most of the lost positions. Investors prefer to wait for the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. At the moment no changes in monetary policy are expected from the American regulator, but investors expect to receive new forecasts regarding a possible reduction in borrowing costs in the future. In turn, market participants evaluate inflation statistics, which have a significant impact on the Bank of England’s decisions on monetary policy: on a monthly basis, the indicator rose from -0.6% to 0.6%, only slightly inferior to analysts’ forecasts of 0.7%, and in annual terms, the Consumer Price Index fell from 4.0% to 3.4% with preliminary estimates of 3.5%, while the Core CPI YoY in February adjusted from 5.1% to 4.5%, and MoM from -0.9% to 0.6%. At the same time, the Retail Price Index, which records changes in the cost of goods and services purchased by consumers for personal consumption, decreased from 4.9% to 4.5% in annual terms, and increased from -0.3% to 0.8% in monthly terms. The Bank of England meeting will take place tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT 2) and analysts expect that officials will not change the parameters of monetary policy, and will also speak out in favor of receiving additional confirmation of lower inflation before switching to "dovish" rhetoric.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows multidirectional dynamics, holding near 0.6530. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions on the instrument ahead of today's publication of the results of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Markets do not yet expect drastic changes in the regulator’s rhetoric, but doubts are gradually growing about the likelihood of three reductions in borrowing costs this year. If officials indicate only two declines, the position of the American currency may noticeably strengthen. Investors evaluate macroeconomic statistics from the US on the housing market, published the day before. Housing Starts in February increased from 1.374 million to 1.521 million units, which was significantly higher than expectations of 1.425 million. The dynamics of Building Permits accelerated from 1.489 million to 1.518 million, also ahead of forecasts at 1.495 million, and in percentage terms the growth rates were 10.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia put pressure on the position of the Australian currency the day before. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, but somewhat softened the tone of the final statements, refusing, for example, to mention the possibility of further increasing the cost of borrowing if necessary.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues its strong growth, updating local highs in mid-November 2023. The instrument builds on the momentum generated the day before, which arose thanks to the Bank of Japan's historic decision to abandon its eight-year policy of negative interest rates. As expected, the rate was set at 0.00%, although officials still intend to retain most of the bond portfolio, abandoning only the riskiest exchange-traded funds. The yen, however, did not receive support from the regulator’s decision, since investors already included the possibility of tightening monetary policy in quotes, but did not hear the "hawkish" comments of Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding future prospects. Additional pressure on the position of the Japanese currency was also exerted by macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of Industrial Production: in January, the indicator decreased by 6.7% after -7.5% in the previous month, and on annual basis it decreased by 1.5%. Today, investors' attention is focused on the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. At the moment, analysts do not expect changes in the parameters of the American regulator’s monetary policy, but they expect to hear updated forecasts for borrowing costs for 2024. The main question at the moment is how many times officials will adjust the interest rate this year and whether the first reduction will take place in June.

XAU/USD

During the Asian session, quotes of the XAU/USD pair are consolidating near the level of 2155.00. Traders are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of today's publication of the results of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, at which the interest rate will likely be kept in the range of 5.25–5.50%; however, as before, the most important will be the comments of officials regarding immediate prospects for monetary policy. The market is in no hurry to revise the main scenario, which assumes the first reduction in borrowing costs in June and only three adjustments until the end of 2024. If the Fed again points out the risks of inflation, and therefore reduces the number of proposed reductions to two, the position of the American currency may strengthen significantly. Tomorrow, investors will pay attention to the results of the meetings of the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Both regulators are expected not to change the current parameters, but will also indicate the need to obtain additional macroeconomic data on the dynamics of consumer inflation. One way or another, gold remains under moderate pressure, since global central banks apparently do not intend to rush into a transition to softening rhetoric, focusing on the US Federal Reserve. Tomorrow March data on business activity in the US and the eurozone will be presented. The US Services PMI from S&P Global is predicted to slow down from 52.3 points to 52.0 points, and the Manufacturing PMI may decrease from 52.2 points to 51.7 points.