EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, holding near 1.0885. Market activity remains subdued at the beginning of the week as traders are in no hurry to open positions in anticipation of the emergence of new drivers. Today, February inflation statistics will be published in the eurozone: forecasts do not imply any changes in the Consumer Price Index compared to previous data at levels of 0.6% monthly and 2.6% annualized, and the Core CPI may remain at 3.1%. In addition, the focus of investors' attention this week will be on the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will become known on Wednesday. Analysts are confident that officials will keep current monetary policy unchanged, but comments regarding a possible reduction in borrowing costs later this year will remain relevant. Currently, the market expects a rate cut at the June meeting with a probability of approximately 60.0%, while at the beginning of last week it exceeded 70.0%. On Thursday, March 21, trading participants will evaluate March data on business activity in the eurozone, as well as the monthly economic report of the European Central Bank (ECB), which may clarify the prospects for the regulator's monetary policy for the current year. Forecasts for business activity indices suggest an increase in the Manufacturing PMI from 46.5 points to 47.0 points and in the Services PMI from 50.2 points to 50.5 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, consolidating near 1.2730 and local lows of March 7, updated at the end of last week. Traders are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the emergence of new drivers from the UK and the USA. The central place among the weekly publications is occupied by the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Both regulators are currently not expected to change monetary policy, but their minutes could clarify plans for an expected reduction in borrowing costs later this year. As before, investors expect that the US Fed may decide on the first interest rate adjustment by 25 basis points in June. The Bank of England is likely to pay more attention to consumer inflation statistics due on Wednesday. In February, the Consumer Price Index could gain 0.7% after -0.6% in the previous month, and the Core CPI annual rate is expected to reach 4.6% after 5.1%. Also, during the day, data on the Retail Price Index will be published: experts expect an increase of 0.8% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year after -0.3% and 4.9%, respectively.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6565, retreating from the lows of March 6, updated at the end of last week, with traders in no hurry to open positions until new key data appears. Investors expect the results of the US Fed's meeting on the interest rate. According to preliminary estimates, the regulator will not change the current parameters of monetary policy, but will present updated forecasts. The market is pricing in three 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year, with the first not coming until June. The American dollar is under pressure from Friday's macroeconomic statistics: the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan in March fell from 76.9 points to 76.5 points, worse than analysts' neutral forecasts, and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index went down from -2.4 points to -20.9 points with expectations of -7.0 points. On Tuesday at 5:30 (GMT 2) the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be published. Analysts' forecasts assume that the interest rate will remain at 4.35%, and experts do not expect a sharp change in the officials' rhetoric from the press conference. On Thursday, investors will pay attention to the labor market report: in February, the Employment Change may adjust from 0.5 thousand to 40.0 thousand, and the Unemployment Rate from 4.1% to 4.0%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows multidirectional dynamics: the instrument remains near 149.15, and trading participants expect new drivers to emerge. This week, a block of macroeconomic data is expected to be published, and investors will focus on the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Japanese regulator will announce a decision on interest rates tomorrow. Some analysts believe that officials will abandon the eight-year policy of negative interest rates, adjusting the value from -0.10%, attributing this primarily to a sharp increase in wages, which will help maintain the current momentum of inflation risks. More cautious forecasts for borrowing costs suggest the rate will rise in April. In addition, tomorrow Japan will present January Industrial Production statistics, which reflect the amount of manufactured goods and utilities produced in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. Forecasts call for a further decline in output of 7.5% on a monthly basis, after falling by a similar amount a month earlier, and on an annualized basis, production fell 1.5% in December. In turn, the US Federal Reserve meeting will take place on Wednesday and analysts do not expect officials to make changes to monetary policy, but they expect to receive forecasts regarding the cost of borrowing for the current year. The market continues to price in at least three 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of 2024, the first of which could come in June.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is developing the "bearish" momentum formed last week: the instrument is testing 2145.00 for a breakdown, updating the local lows of March 7. Quotes are being pressured by the upcoming meetings of global central banks this week, from which they are not expected to take steps towards easing monetary conditions. Moreover, the Bank of Japan could announce a historic rise in borrowing costs tomorrow, ending an eight-year period of negative interest rates during which it battled the effects of deflation. In turn, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are unlikely to change the parameters of monetary policy, but analysts fear that both regulators will signal in favor of a more balanced approach before switching to "dovish" rhetoric. However, forecasts still suggest that the American regulator will lower interest rates at least three times before the end of 2024. Trading participants continue to evaluate macroeconomic statistics from the United States, published last Friday. The Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan dropped from 76.9 points to 76.5 points in March, while analysts expected it to remain the same. Industrial Production volumes in February added 0.1% after -0.5% in the previous month, while experts expected zero dynamics, and Capacity Utilization remained at 78.3% against the forecast of 78.5%.