NZD/USD WEAKENS TO 0.6100 AS EASING FED RATE HOPES IMPROVE SAFE-HAVEN BID

• NZD/USD tumbles to 0.6100 as market sentiment remains downbeat.
• Hot US CPI and PPI data for February has diminished Fed rate cut expectations for June.
• The NZ Dollar will dance to the tunes of the Q4 GDP data.

The NZD/USD pair falls vertically to the round-level support of 0.6100 in Friday’s early American session. The Kiwi asset weakens as market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in the June policy meeting have diminished. This has led to a big dent in the demand for risk-sensitive assets.

The S&P 500 opens on a bearish note as investors rush for safe-haven assets amid uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% while investors will majorly focus on the dot plot and economic projections. The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates in a tight range around 103.80. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to 4.31%.

Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates are shifting to the July monetary policy meeting as consumer and producer prices remain hotter than expected in February. The situation is not favorable for the Fed to pivot to rate cuts. Fed policymakers have been reiterating that rate cuts would be appropriate only if they get confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar will be guided by the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of 2023, which will be published later next week. The NZ economy is forecasted to have remained stagnant. The NZ economy would be considered in a technical recession if the economy contracts in the final quarter of 2023. The economy was contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2023