EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0875 for a breakdown, and investors are expecting new drivers to emerge. Today, traders will pay attention to inflation data in France and Italy, as well as a speech by the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane, which is scheduled for 16:30 (GMT 2). Earlier, the official, answering questions from CNBC, acknowledged serious progress in reducing inflationary pressure in the eurozone, but noted that more macroeconomic data, which will be received in April and June, are needed to adjust monetary policy. In addition, during the day the US will present February statistics on Industrial Production, as well as the March Consumer Confidence index from the University of Michigan. Forecasts suggest that Industrial Production will show zero growth after a 0.1% decline in January, while Consumer Confidence will remain at 76.9 points. Meanwhile, the American currency is moderately supported by data on the dynamics of producer inflation published yesterday, which, like the Consumer Price Index presented on Tuesday, turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations. In February, the Producer Price Index on an annualized basis accelerated from 1.0% to 1.6%, while analysts expected 1.1%, and on a monthly basis - from 0.3% to 0.6%, twice as fast as neutral forecasts. The Core PPI excluding Food and Energy added another 2.0%, contrary to expectations at 1.9%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is developing downward dynamics, preparing to end the weekly session with a rather noticeable decline: the instrument is testing 1.2740 for a breakdown and updating the local lows of March 7. Quotes are being put under pressure by the fact that expectations for monetary adjustments by the US Federal Reserve are weakening. Thus, trading participants on Tuesday drew attention to data on consumer inflation, which exceeded most forecasts, and the day before statistics on the Producer Price Index were presented: in February, the indicator strengthened by 0.6% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, while analysts expected 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, and the Core PPI excluding Food and Energy added another 2. 0% with a forecast of 1.9%. At the same time, Retail Sales in February increased by 0.6% after -1.1% in the previous month, while experts expected an increase of 0.8%. In turn, the UK statistics on RICS Housing Price Balance were presented yesterday: in February the indicator lost 10.0% after -19.0% in the previous month with preliminary estimates of -11.0%, which is the highest level since October 2022.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is declining, developing a fairly active "bearish" trend formed during the week, as well as updating local lows of March 6. The instrument is testing the strong support level of 0.6100, and the "bulls" almost completely ignore macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. The Manufacturing PMI in February rose from 47.5 points (revised from 47.3 points) to 49.3 points, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts. Meanwhile, data on producer inflation in the US, published the day before, puts pressure on quotes. The Producer Price Index in February accelerated from 0.3% to 0.6%, while analysts expected the previous dynamics to continue, and in annual terms the indicator increased from 1.0% to 1.6%, with a forecast of 1.1%. Against this background, doubts regarding the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June have strengthened, although such a scenario is still considered as the main one. The day before, investors also paid attention to the publication of statistics on the American labor market. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 8 decreased from 210.0 thousand to 209.0 thousand, while analysts expected 218.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended March 1 increased from 1.794 million to 1.811 million against expectations of 1.900 million.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 148.30 and local highs from March 7. The instrument is preparing to end the next week with moderate growth, which occurred against the backdrop of doubts about the ability of the US Federal Reserve to implement its plans and begin reducing borrowing costs in June. American inflation data published on Tuesday testified against such a scenario: the Consumer Price Index in February added 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, with expectations of 0.4% and 3.1%, respectively. In addition, statistics on Producer Price Index were presented the day before: the indicator strengthened by 0.6% in monthly terms and 1.6% in annual terms, while analysts expected 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, and the Core PPI excluding Food and Energy increased by 2.0% with preliminary estimates of 1.9%. Today, trading participants will pay attention to February statistics on Industrial Production, as well as March data on the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting next week. The regulator is expected to provide clear deadlines for the proposed abandonment of the negative interest rate policy. Some analysts believe that officials may decide to take such a step as early as April. Macroeconomic statistics released in Japan today showed a slowdown in Tertiary Industry Index in January from 0.5% to 0.3%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2165.00, preparing to end the week with a slight decline. The day before, the instrument was put under pressure by statistics on producer inflation in the United States: in February, the Producer Price Index added 0.6% after increasing by 0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator showed acceleration from 1.0% to 1.6% with expectations of 1.1%. The data obtained contribute to growing doubts about the US Federal Reserve's imminent transition to "dovish" rhetoric. The main scenario still assumes the first interest rate cut of 25 basis points in June, but regulator officials have repeatedly noted that before monetary easing can be implemented, it will be necessary to wait until there is confidence that inflation is moving towards the 2.0% target. Today in the US, February statistics on Industrial Production dynamics will be published, as well as the March Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan, which may remain at 76.9 points.