Daily digest market movers: Trying to time that Fed cut
- The NFIB Business Optimism Index for February has already been released around 10:00 GMT. Previous number was at 89.9 with the February number coming in xxx (filled in when released).
- The Consumer Price Index for February is to be released at 12:30 GMT:
- Monthly Headline CPI is expected to come in at 0.4% from 0.3% a month earlier.
- Yearly Headline CPI is set to remain stable at 3.1%.
- Monthly Core CPI is seen heading from 0.4% to 0.3%.
- Yearly Core CPI should decline as well from 3.9% to 3.7%.
- At 17:00 GMT, the US Treasury Department will head to markets to allocate a 10-year Note.
- Equities are sideways with one outlier to notice: The Chinese Hang Seng Index has jumped over 3% near its closing bell. US equity futures are in the green ahead of the CPI print, up 0.50%.
- According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations for a Fed pause in the March 20 meeting are at 97%, while chances of a rate cut stand at 3%.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.09%, and could snap below 4.00%, should inflation fall substantially.
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