It should not be too difficult to identify the key event for the FX market today: The new inflation figures from the US are on the agenda. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the US Dollar outlook ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
US inflation figures likely to support the hawkish voices on the FOMC
I would still be a little cautious about following the recent weakness of the Dollar too much. After all, we have seen the first cracks in the story of the US soft landing. And that certainly justifies some dollar weakness. Ultimately, however, the Fed is likely to be driven by inflation. And today's figures are more likely to support the hawkish voices on the FOMC.
If today's figures are strong again, the market therefore may push back its rate cut expectations a bit. The USD should benefit from this.
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