Note

OIL PRICE RECOVERS SLIGHTLY AS SAUDI ARAMCO HALTS EXPANSION PLAN TO INCREASE OUTPUT

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  • WTI Oil enters in range trade after Aramco scrubs production boost.
  • Oil traders are still positioned for more upside potential with bullish option market positioning.
  • The US Dollar Index steady below 103.00, with data-driven week ahead while Fed enters blackout period.

Oil prices are trading sideways this Monday with some slim gains on the back of headlines that Saudi Arabia’s Aramco has postponed plans to boost its production from 12 to 13 million barrels per day by 2027. Still, the news only moves the price by a touch because the actual production was never close at these levels, and thus is not being taken away from markets. All in all, nothing changed much and this puts the Crude in a bit of a range between $75 and $80.

The US Dollar is entering a week in which it will move from one data point to the next. The glue or guidance that markets normally get from US Federal Reserve members’ speeches will not be taking place this week as the Fed has entered its blackout period ahead of the rate decision and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech next week. Expect thus a very whipsaw week for the US Dollar, facing scenarios such as when one data point contradicts the next, or an accelerated move in one direction when all data falls in line with one bias. 

Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $77.47 per barrel, and Brent Oil trades at $81.74 per barrel at the time of writing. 


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