Daily digest market movers: Markets huddle ahead of another go around the US CPI inflation wheel
- On Monday, the New York Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that US 3-year inflation expectations rose to 2.7% in February, up from the previous 2.4%.
- US 5-year inflation expectations also rose, jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% as consumers turned less optimistic about the future. Near-term inflation expectations held at 3% in the aggregate.
- According to a poll of economists, the Fed is going to be the first of the major central banks to cut rates, with 72 of 108 responding economists saying a first cut will happen in June.
- 52 of 108 economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024, with 26 saying 100 bps.
- Tuesday’s US CPI print is expected to be mixed. The headline MoM CPI is forecast to increase, while Core CPI figures are forecast to decline.
- February’s MoM CPI is expected to print at 0.4% versus the previous 0.3%.
- Core MoM CPI is forecast to tick lower to 0.3% from 0.4%.
- YoY CPI for the year ended February is expected to hold steady at 3.1%.
- MoM Core CPI (headline less volatile food and energy prices) is expected to ease slightly to 0.3% from the previous 0.4%.
- On Monday, the New York Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that US 3-year inflation expectations rose to 2.7% in February, up from the previous 2.4%.
- US 5-year inflation expectations also rose, jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% as consumers turned less optimistic about the future. Near-term inflation expectations held at 3% in the aggregate.
- According to a poll of economists, the Fed is going to be the first of the major central banks to cut rates, with 72 of 108 responding economists saying a first cut will happen in June.
- 52 of 108 economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024, with 26 saying 100 bps.
- Tuesday’s US CPI print is expected to be mixed. The headline MoM CPI is forecast to increase, while Core CPI figures are forecast to decline.
- February’s MoM CPI is expected to print at 0.4% versus the previous 0.3%.
- Core MoM CPI is forecast to tick lower to 0.3% from 0.4%.
- YoY CPI for the year ended February is expected to hold steady at 3.1%.
- MoM Core CPI (headline less volatile food and energy prices) is expected to ease slightly to 0.3% from the previous 0.4%.
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