EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0950 and local highs from January 15. Activity in the market remains low as trading participants await the publication of the February report on the US labor market, which could have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Analysts expect a slowdown in Nonfarm Payrolls from the previous 353.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand. The Unemployment Rate may remain at 3.7%, and the Average Hourly Earnings may slow down from 4.5% to 4.4%. In addition, during the day investors will evaluate macroeconomic statistics from the EU. The Producer Price Index in Germany in January increased from -0.8% to 0.2%, and in annual terms slowed down the negative dynamics from -5.1% to -4.4%, with forecasts of 0.1% and -6.6%, respectively. In turn, Industrial Production adjusted from -2.0% to 1.0%, reflecting the smooth recovery of the industry. Data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment Change in the eurozone for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be released later. The region's economy is projected to grow by 0.1%, as well as an increase in Employment Change by another 1.3%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with near-zero dynamics, consolidating near the resistance level of 1.2800 and updating local highs from December 28. At the same time, the instrument is preparing to end the weekly session with a rather noticeable increase, which is associated with the weakening position of the American currency, which was pressured by the results of the speech of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in Congress. The official again urged not to rush into the transition to easing monetary conditions until there is confirmation of a slowdown in inflation to the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, trading participants are preparing for a possible interest rate cut by 25 basis points during the regulator's June meeting, but are weakening expectations regarding the amount by which the rate may be adjusted for the full year. Earlier, Fed's representative Neel Kashkari said he did not expect more than two reductions in borrowing costs in 2024. Today the February labor market report will be published in the United States, and traders are assessing statistics on jobless claims, which were published the day before: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 1 remained at 217.0 thousand, while analysts expected 215.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended February 23 increased from 1.898 million to 1.906 million, contrary to forecasts of a decrease to 1.885 million.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed last Wednesday, when quotes managed to retreat from the local lows of February 14. The instrument is testing 0.6630 for a breakout, and the "bulls" are updating local highs from January 16. The Australian dollar, in addition to the further weakening of the American currency, was supported by optimistic statistics from China published on Thursday: Export volumes in February added 7.1% after an increase of 2.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected 1.9%. and Imports accelerated from 0.2% to 3.5%, with a forecast of 1.5%. Such a noticeable increase in exports led to an increase in the trade surplus from 75.34 billion US dollars to 125.16 billion US dollars, with preliminary estimates of 103.7 billion US dollars. The day before, investors assessed February data on Australian foreign trade: Export volumes adjusted from 1.5% to 1.6%, while Imports, on the contrary, slowed sharply from 4.8% to 1.3%. The trade surplus also rose from 10.74 billion Australian dollars to 11.03 billion Australian dollars, but fell short of expectations of 11.5 billion Australian dollars. Today, investors will focus on the publication of the February labor market report, which may affect the final decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing an uncertain decline, developing a strong "bearish" signal formed last Tuesday. Quotes are testing 147.80 for a breakdown, updating the local lows of February 2. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of the February report on the US labor market. It is predicted that Nonfarm Payrolls will decrease from 353.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand. The Unemployment Rate may remain at 3.7%, and the Average Hourly Earnings may adjust from 4.5% to 4.4% in annual terms and from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan are putting some pressure on the yen today: Overall Household Spending in January decreased by 6.3% after -2.5% in the previous month, while analysts expected -4.3%. In turn, the Leading Economic Index dropped from 110.5 points to 109.9 points, and Coincident Index went down from 116.0 points to 110.2 points. At the same time, the Japanese currency is supported by expectations of a possible abandonment of the policy of negative interest rates by the financial authorities. Some investors believe that regulator officials may decide to adjust the interest rate as early as April.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 1.2160 after a "bullish" rally for seven trading sessions in a row, as a result of which the quotes managed to reach new highs. The instrument is supported by the weakness of the US currency, which remains under pressure from the US Federal Reserve's uncertain policy regarding interest rates. Speaking before Congress, the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, repeated previous theses regarding the need to wait for additional signals about a reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0%. At the moment, there are risks of increasing price pressures, given that the US economy is showing resilience, and a prolonged period of high borrowing costs may be less painful than a rush to reduce them. Gold, as before, is supported by growing geopolitical risks, which are gradually added to by political uncertainty ahead of the US presidential elections, which will be held in the fall. Today, updated data on the eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, as well as employment levels, will be presented. In addition, February labor market reports will be published in the US and Canada. Forecasts for American data suggest a slowdown in Nonfarm Payrolls from 353.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, and the Average Hourly Earnings may adjust from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms and from 4. 5% to 4.4% in annual terms.