EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows slight growth, holding at 1.0900 and local highs from January 24, updated the day before. The euro was supported the day before by the results of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress. As expected, the official’s rhetoric largely repeated the points voiced earlier. Thus, according to him, the main obstacle to launching a program to reduce borrowing costs remains uncertainty about the further weakening of price pressure in the country, but the Fed hopes to receive new clear signals of a slowdown in inflation rates in the near future. At the same time, officials have not given up on easing monetary policy and are still planning to do so later this year. Most analysts expect the first interest rate adjustment of 25 basis points during the regulator's June meeting. In turn, the American currency received some support on Wednesday from data from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company on employment in the private sector: in February, the indicator increased from 111.0 thousand to 140.0 thousand, which was 10.0 thousand lower than the preliminary ratings. Tomorrow investors will evaluate the February report on the US labor market. In turn, yesterday's publications from the EU did not have a noticeable impact on the dynamics of quotes for the EUR/USD pair. Export volumes in Germany increased by 6.3% in January after -4.5% in the previous month, and Imports increased by 3.6% after a sharp decline of 6.7%. Against this background, the trade surplus increased from 23.3 billion euros to 27.5 billion euros, ahead of forecasts of 21.50 billion euros. Retail Sales in the eurozone fell 1.0% in January after falling -0.5% a month earlier, while analysts had expected -1.3%. In monthly terms, as expected, the indicator added 0.1% after -0.6% in December. Today, the focus of investors' attention will be on the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision: it is expected that the rate will be kept at 4.50%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with upward dynamics, developing the "bullish" momentum that formed on March 1, when the quotes retreated from the local lows of February 20. The instrument is testing 1.2740 for a breakout, keeping close to the local highs of February 2, updated the day before. Investors' attention yesterday was focused on the first of the two planned speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress: the official expressed doubts about the sustainability of the current rate of weakening inflation, but retained optimistic assessments of the stability of the American economy, as a result of which analysts did not change their forecasts regarding the timing of the regulator's transition to "dovish" course and believe that it will begin no earlier than the June meeting. The day before, investors paid attention to the UK Budget Report presented by the Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt. In particular, the draft budget provides for a reduction in contributions to the social insurance fund by two percentage points, as well as a temporary freeze of excise taxes on alcohol and fuel. The pound was also slightly supported by macroeconomic statistics on business activity: the February Construction PMI rose from 48.8 points to 49.7 points, with preliminary estimates at 49.0 points. Today, investors are assessing the publication of the February House Price Index from the country's largest mortgage lender, Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), which recorded a decline from 1.2% to 0.4% month-on-month and from 2.3% to 1.7% year-on-year, thereby confirming that the national property market remains under pressure from high interest rates set by the Bank of England.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing quite noticeable growth, developing the strong "bullish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing 0.6585 for a breakout, updating local highs from February 22. The reason for the strengthening of quotes the day before was the results of the speech of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in the US Congress. As expected, the official repeated the previously voiced points and noted that in order to launch the interest rate reduction program, it is currently necessary to wait for additional evidence of easing inflationary pressure. The Australian dollar, in turn, largely ignored statistics on business activity and the dynamics of Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023. The national economy added 0.2% in quarterly terms against expectations of 0.3%, and on an annualized basis the growth rate slowed down from 2.1% to 1.5%, beating analysts' forecasts by 0.1%. Australia's February trade balance figures were released today, with Exports up 1.6% and Imports down sharply from 4.8% to 1.3%, pushing the trade surplus from 10.74 billion Australian dollars to 11.03 billion Australian dollars.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing an active decline, quickly updating new local lows in early February. The instrument is testing the support level of 148.50 for a breakdown, while analysts are expecting another speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress. The day before, in the House Financial Services Committee, the official repeated his previous theses that in order to launch a program to reduce borrowing costs, it is now necessary to wait for new evidence of a reduction in inflation in the country. At the same time, the chairman of the regulator pointed to a sufficient margin of safety of the national economy, which allows the Fed to maintain a neutral position relatively painlessly. Today, investors are awaiting Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, but the tone of the statements is likely to remain the same and the market reaction is likely to be more muted. Tomorrow Japan will present annual data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, as well as the January Current Account, which could reflect a deficit of 330.4 billion yen, while in December markets recorded a surplus of 744. 3 billion yen. In the US on Friday, investors will pay attention to the February labor market report.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair continues moderate growth, renewing record highs. The instrument is testing 2160.00 for a breakout, while trading participants expect new drivers to appear on the market. The focus of investors' attention today will be the second speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress. The day before, the official remained faithful to his previous theses about the need to wait for additional signals of easing inflationary pressure before launching a program to reduce borrowing costs. At the same time, representatives of the Fed understand the need to ease monetary policy and promise to return to "dovish" rhetoric as soon as this becomes possible. In addition, yesterday, the data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) was published on employment in the private sector in the United States: in February the figure increased from 111.0 thousand to 140.0 thousand, with a forecast of 150.0 thousand. In turn, JOLTS Job Openings in January decreased from 9.026 million to 8.863 million, while analysts expected a decrease to 8.900 million. Tomorrow the February report on the US labor market will be presented. The dynamics of growth in Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to slow down from 353.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, and the Average Hourly Earnings may adjust from 4.5% to 4.4%.