Today sees UK Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, present a pre-election budget. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the only G10 currency to print positive total returns against the US Dollar (USD) this year. An expansionary UK budget would support the GBP, economists at ING say.
Chancellor Hunt to keep Sterling show on the road
Some decent fiscal stimulus should only delay the Bank of England easing cycle (we currently pencil in August for the first cut) and support Sterling.
There may also be focus on new measures to support the UK financial industry, such as a new Individual Savings Account with tax incentives to invest in British-listed securities. There has also been some petitioning of the Chancellor to lower or abolish the 0.5% stamp duty on UK share trading, which puts Britain at a disadvantage for listings relative to most competitors. Any move here, as long as it was funded, would prove a Sterling positive.
Overall, we are mildly positive on sterling today and can see a scenario where GBP/USD presses strong resistance at 1.2800/1.2825.
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