EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating near 1.0850. Market participants are in no hurry to open new positions, waiting for the emergence of drivers for movement. Today, the first of two planned speeches by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take place in the US Congress. The market is counting on the official to announce the regulator's plans for a possible reduction in borrowing costs later this year. At the same time, most analysts agree that Powell's speech will once again be directed against excessive speculation on the topic of easing monetary policy, since the Fed remains wary of a premature return of inflation risks. Also today, a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment will be released in the United States, which will precede the Friday publication of February labor market data. A noticeable increase in the indicator is predicted from 107.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand. In turn, January statistics on Retail Sales will be presented in the eurozone today: annual dynamics are expected to decline by 1.3% after -0.8% in the previous month, and in monthly terms sales may add 0.1% after -1.1% in December. Tomorrow, investors will evaluate the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB): it is assumed that the regulator will keep the interest rate at 4.50%; however, as before, the updated forecasts of officials will be more important. Also, the market currently estimates the probability of a reduction in the cost of ECB borrowing in June at 88.0%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding close to the resistance level of 1.2700. The day before, the pound had already made active attempts to consolidate above this level and even briefly updated the local highs of February 2, but the "bulls" failed to consolidate at new levels. Traders are closing some of their long positions ahead of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speeches with his semi-annual report in the US Congress, which do not imply a change in rhetoric towards a more rapid reduction in borrowing costs this year. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the positions of the American currency the day before. The Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in February decreased from 53.4 points to 52.6 points, with expectations of 53.0 points, and the similar index from S&P Global rose from 51.3 points to 52.3 point. In turn, Factory Orders fell by 3.6% in January after -0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected -2.9%, and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in March corrected from 44.0 points to 43.5 points with a forecast of 45.2 points. It is worth noting that British data on business activity turned out to be worse than preliminary estimates: the Services PMI from S&P Global in February amounted to 53.8 points after 54.3 points a month earlier.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing active growth, recovering from a predominantly "bearish" start to the current week, which resulted in an update of the local lows of February 14. The instrument is supported by the fact that investors are closing part of their long positions in the US currency. Among other things, the focus today is the publication of an economic review from the US Federal Reserve, the Beige Book, as well as the speech of the Chairman of the regulator, Jerome Powell, in the US Congress with a semi-annual report. Analysts' forecasts suggest that the official will once again signal in favor of a slower decline in borrowing costs from current record levels, while the Fed's forecasts will be largely neutral. Investors will also pay attention to data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector: the February figure may increase from 107.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published on Wednesday, do not provide significant support for the instrument. The Australian Industry Group's (AiG) Construction PMI fell from -11.5 points to -18.4 points in January, while the Manufacturing PMI strengthened from -27.3 points to -14.8 points. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 added 0.2%, which is 0.1% lower than the previous value, and in annual terms the rate of growth of the Australian economy slowed down from 2.1% to 1.5% with a forecast of 1.4%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows a slight decrease, testing 150.00 for a breakdown. Today at 17:00 (GMT 2) the first of two planned speeches by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take place in US Congress, where a semi-annual report will be presented, within which the official will likely again point out the existing risks of a return to inflation, which will be a new signal in the benefit of a slower decline in borrowing costs this year. In addition, at 15:15 (GMT 2) February data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector will be published: the indicator is expected to grow from 107.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand. Towards the close of the day's session, investors will turn their attention to the Beige Book, a monthly economic review from the US Federal Reserve. The yen, in turn, is supported by macroeconomic data on inflation published yesterday: the Consumer Price Index in the Tokyo region in February sharply increased from 1.8% to 2.6%, and the CPI excluding Food and Energy dropped from 3.3% to 3.1%, nevertheless remaining well above the Bank of Japan's target of 2.0%. Updated inflation data may affect the Japanese regulator's upcoming interest rate decisions.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating after significant gains over the past few trading sessions, which led to a new all-time high of 2140.00. Today, trading participants prefer to close some of the long positions on the instrument in anticipation of the emergence of new drivers. Thus, among other things, the focus will be on the speech of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, with his semi-annual report in the American Congress, and closer to the close of the day session, the monthly economic review from the US Federal Reserve, the Beige Book, will be published. Jerome Powell is not expected to change his rhetoric and is likely to reiterate the need for a more cautious approach to launching a program to reduce borrowing costs. This may provide additional support for gold, but at the moment the "bullish" potential for short-term growth seems almost exhausted. The speech of the Chair of the American regulator will continue on Thursday, March 7, and a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will also take place, during which no changes in the vector of monetary policy are expected; however, updated comments and forecasts of officials may have a significant impact on the market. The trading week will end with the publication of the February report on the US labor market. Analysts expect a slowdown in the growth of Nonfarm Payrolls from 353.0 thousand to 200.0 thousand, and the Average Hourly Earnings may adjust from 4.5% to 4.4%.