The United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR and GBP but strengthening against JPY.

The currency is under pressure after the publication of poor macroeconomic data: in February, the manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell from 49.1 points to 47.8 points, more than experts expected (49.5 points). Despite the slowdown in the industry, business representatives remained optimistic, noting that product orders could soon return to positive dynamics. The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in February adjusted from 79.0 points to 76.9 points instead of forecasts of 79.6 points, the index of consumer expectations – from 77.1 points to 75.2 points against the estimated 78.4 points, and the current economic conditions index – from 81.9 points to 79.4 points against preliminary estimates of 81.5 points. The statistics increase the likelihood that the US Fed will soon move to ease monetary policy, but the officials remain cautious. On Friday, board member of the regulator Adriana Kugler said she hoped for a “soft landing” of the economy as inflation declined without significant deterioration in the labor market but the struggle with rising prices had not yet been completed.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY and USD but weakening against GBP.

The March Sentix European Investor Confidence Index corrected from –12.9 points to –10.5 points, remaining in the red zone. Experts note that trader sentiment in the region has been improving for the fifth month in a row but remains very poor amid the recession in Germany, impeding the recovery of the European economy. According to renewed forecasts from analysts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. regarding further actions of the European Central Bank (ECB), as a result of the February slowdown in the rate of inflation, the regulator will begin to reduce interest rates no earlier than June, although it was previously expected that easing of monetary policy could start in April.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR, JPY, and USD.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, currency movements are driven by external factors. Bank of England chief economist Hugh Pill, speaking at Cardiff University Business School, said the regulator could adopt a new economic forecasting system that would consider worst-case global scenarios and be able to predict the consequences, in particular, of a complete closure of shipping in the Red Sea. The official also confirmed that he does not expect the Bank of England to switch to the “dovish” rhetoric soon and noted that more evidence of a sustainable decline in inflation towards the target of 2.0% is needed to adjust borrowing costs.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

The Q4 national business capital spending increased 16.4%, better than both the 2.9% forecast and the previous 3.4%. Earlier, the gross domestic product (GDP) reflected a recession in the country, but following the statistics, experts believe it may be revised upwards. On Tuesday, investors wait for the release of February inflation data for the Tokyo metropolitan area, with the consumer price index expected to rise from 1.6% to 2.1% YoY and the core rate from 1.6% to 2.5% YoY, exceeding the Bank of Japan’s target level, which will give officials more arguments in favor of starting to raise interest rates.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against JPY but weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

The total volume of building permits issued decreased by 1.0% instead of the expected increase of 3.8%, and the figure for private houses decreased by 9.9%. Negative dynamics have been developing for the second month, confirming continued pressure on the national property market. However, a slowdown in the sector may increase the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will soon begin adjusting interest rates.

Oil

Oil prices are making moderate attempts to reduce.

Partial profit-taking by investors puts pressure on quotes. However, a significant reduction is hampered by the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the OPEC deal to extend the voluntary reduction in crude oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter. The measure is intended to soften the market situation against global economic problems and increase fuel production by countries that have not joined the agreement. Experts believe that the cartel will continue to make every effort to keep the price of Brent Crude Oil above 80.0 dollars per barrel.