Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is held within the long-term downward channel: at the end of last year, quotes reached its lower border around 0.8361 (Murrey level [1/8]), but then resumed growth.

Currently, the instrument is consolidating near the 0.8789 mark (Murrey level [8/8], 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), waiting for new drivers for movement, one of which may be the publication of the American basic price index of personal consumption expenditures on Thursday at 15:30 (GMT 2). According to forecasts, the indicator will decrease from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY. This indicator is considered one of the most important for the US Federal Reserve and can significantly influence further decisions of officials, who remain cautious for now, insisting that there is currently no additional evidence of a steady decline in inflation to the target level of 2.0%, therefore there is no need to adjust monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator expects to carry out no more than three interest rate cuts this year.

It is also worth paying attention to the publication of data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023 during the week. The American economy is expected to grow by 3.3%, while the Swiss economy is expected to grow by only 0.2%. The implementation of these forecasts may also contribute to the strengthening of the US currency, but the factor of inflation statistics will remain dominant.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is at 0.8789 (Murrey level [8/8], 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), if quotes are consolidated below it and the central line of Bollinger Bands (0.8760), the decline can continue to the targets of 0.8667 (Murrey level [6/8]) and 0.8544 (Murrey level [4/8]). More preferable at the moment remains the scenario of resumed growth to the levels of 0.8911 (Murrey level [ 2/8]) and 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement): Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upwards, MACD is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.8911, 0.9030.

Support levels: 0.8760, 0.8667, 0.8544.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 0.8835 with targets of 0.8911, 0.9030 and stop-loss of 0.8790. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions should be opened below the 0.8760 mark with targets of 0.8667, 0.8544 and stop-loss of 0.8810.