EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing a short-term upward trend that began to form two weeks ago. The instrument is testing 1.0855 for a breakout, updating local highs from February 22 and waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. This week the US will publish data on the dynamics of Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, an indicator that is actively used by the US Federal Reserve in calculating average inflation. It is expected that the Core index in January will slow down in annual terms from 2.9% to 2.8%, and in monthly terms experts expect growth from 0.2% to 0.4%. Any increase in price pressure will provide additional support to the US currency, as it will mean that the financial regulator will not rush to launch a program to reduce borrowing costs in May or July. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT 2) in the United States, updated data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, as well as January statistics on Personal Income and Spending, will be published. In turn, the focus in the eurozone will be on business sentiment data in February, as well as on inflation statistics. On Thursday, Germany will present data on the Consumer Price Index: it is expected that in February the monthly rate will accelerate from 0.2% to 0.5%, and in the annual rate it will decrease from 2.9% to 2.6%. On Friday, March 1, similar data will be published in the eurozone as a whole: Core CPI is expected to slow down from 3.3% to 2.9%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading virtually unchanged during the morning session, holding near 1.2680. Market activity remains subdued as trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of macroeconomic statistics. Today in the US, January data on Durable Goods Orders will be presented: the dynamics of the indicator excluding Transportation is predicted to slow down from 0.5% to 0.2%, and Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft may be adjusted from 0.2% to 0.1%. Overall Durable Goods Orders may fall by 4.8% in January after flat growth in the previous month. Also during the day, February statistics on the level of Consumer Confidence in the United States will be published. In turn, data from Great Britain that arrived on the market today did not provide any noticeable support to the pound. The BRC Shop Price Index fell from 2.9% to 2.5% in January, signaling a further weakening of inflationary pressures in the country. On Thursday, January data on the dynamics of consumer credit will appear in the UK: Consumer Credit is expected to rise from 1.187 billion pounds to 1.600 billion pounds, and Net Lending to Individuals will increase from 0.4 billion pounds to 1.9 billion pounds. It is also expected that the Mortgage Approvals in January will increase from 50.459 thousand to 52.0 thousand.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is strengthening slightly, recovering from an active decline at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing 0.6540 for a breakout, while trading participants expect new drivers to appear on the market. Tomorrow at 2:30 (GMT 2) January data on the Weighted mean CPI will be published: according to preliminary estimates, the indicator will increase from 3.4% to 3.6%, that is, inflationary pressure in the economy will increase, but will remain quite close to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2.0-3.0%. On the same day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its decision on the interest rate: it is expected that the regulator will maintain the value at 5.50%. On Thursday, Australia will publish a block of macroeconomic statistics on retail sales and credit volumes. Forecasts call for Retail Sales to gain 1.5% in January, following a 2.7% decline in the previous month. Private Sector Credit in January could grow by another 0.4% month-on-month and 4.8% year-on-year, while Private Capital Expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2023 could adjust from 0.6% to 0.5%. In the US on Thursday, investors will evaluate data on one of the key indicators of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index. It is expected that in January the figure will slow down from 2.6% to 2.4% in annual terms, and rise from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, correcting after attempting corrective growth last week. The instrument is testing 150.40 for a breakdown, while investors await the publication of macroeconomic statistics. Among other things, on Thursday, February 29, data on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index will be presented: the Core price indicator is expected to slow down in January from 2.9% to 2.8% in annual terms, and in the monthly terms, analysts expect an increase from 0.2% to 0.4%. On the same day, January statistics on the dynamics of Retail Sales and Industrial Production volumes will be published in Japan. Sales are forecast to accelerate from 2.1% to 2.3%, while expectations for Industrial Production suggest a sharp decline in monthly dynamics from 1.4% to -7.3%. The Japanese inflation data is putting some pressure on the yen today. The National Consumer Price Index in January showed a slowdown from 2.6% to 2.2%, and the CPI excluding Food and Energy - from 3.7% to 3.5%. At the same time, the CPI excluding Fresh Food decreased from 2.3% to 2.0%, while analysts expected 1.8%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding around 2030.00: the day before, the instrument failed to consolidate at new local lows. At the same time, pressure on gold prices is exerted by the dynamics in the US currency, which is supported by weakening investor expectations regarding the timing of the US Federal Reserve's transition to easing monetary policy. At the same time, most market participants are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the publication of inflation data. On Thursday, February 29, key statistics for the American regulator on the dynamics of personal consumption expenditures will be presented: it is predicted that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index in January will slow down from 2.9% to 2.8% in annual terms and will increase slightly from 0.2% to 0.4% monthly. On the same day, data on Initial Jobless Claims will be published: it is expected that their number for the week ended February 23 will increase from 201.0 thousand to 210.0 thousand. In addition, US Federal Reserve officials Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee will speak on Thursday. However, gold prices may react to the publication of consumer inflation statistics in the eurozone at the end of the week. However, markets are still more closely monitoring the actions of the US Federal Reserve, since current expectations suggest that both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will announce the launch of a program to reduce borrowing costs only after the American regulator.