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Daily digest market movers: Really? A rate hike?

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  • An article from the Wall Street Journal’s Marketwatch is pointing to a small possibility of a rate hike in the coming three months. This probability is not seen in the US Chicago Mercantile Exchange Fed fund futures, but is showing up in options tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
  • Around 12:00 GMT, the weekly Mortgage Bankers Applications (MBA) Index will be released. Previous was a contraction of -2.3%.
  • Near 13:55 the delayed Redbook Index is due to be released, with the previous number at 2.5%.
  • The US Treasury Department is heading back to markets for a 20-year bond auction near 18:00. 
  • THe US Federal Reserve is due to release the Minutes from its latest meeting, near 19:00. 
  • Ahead of those Minutes, US Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is due to speak near 13:00, followed by Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman around 18:00. 
  • Equities are very dispersed with China being the biggest winner this Wednesday. Both the Hang Seng and the Shenzhen Index are up over 1% on the day. European equities are dragging lower with the British FTSE100 down near 1%. US equity futures before the US opening bell are trading in the red. 
  • The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is now looking at the March 20th meeting. Expectations for a pause are 93.5% and 6.5% for a rate cut. 
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.27%, a touch softer than Tuesday when the bond market opened for this week. 

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